Season win totals are some of the most popular NFL bets to make heading into a new year.
They are literally what they sound like — season-long bets where you can bet “Over” or “Under” a tangible win total for any given team in the league. Oddsmakers create a number based on power ratings, strength of schedule and expected probability.
The Kansas City Chiefs (12.5) have the highest win total and the Houston Texans (4) have the lowest.
Here are three NFL win totals I like this season with odds via DraftKings:
Check out NESN’s in-depth NFL Betting Preview here.
Green Bay Packers “Over” 10 wins (-165)
Laying heavy juice is one of my least favorite things in the world. But come on. How can you possibly short the Packers in what is likely Aaron Rodgers’ last season in Green Bay? The Packers have the best roster in the NFC North and that’s an easy 4-2 or 5-1 mark against division opponents. And they’re going to be favored at least 13 times (in 17 games) with the only surefire underdog spots at San Francisco, Kansas City and Baltimore. Even in those games, Rodgers can be the great equalizer. Also, head coach Matt LaFleur is 26-6 in the regular season. Ten wins should be the floor. Don’t overthink it.
New Orleans Saints “Over” 9 wins (+100)
Are you ready for the Jameis Winston party? The man who threw for 5,100 yards and 30 touchdowns in Tampa Bay with bad eyes gets a chance to show what he’s got after a full season of learning the Saints offense from Sean Payton and Drew Brees. I spoke to a couple of oddsmakers who said the drop-off from ’20 Brees to ’21 Winston is minimal. Anybody who lost money on New Orleans could probably confirm. If Brees went “deep,” the ball traveled in slow motion. Subtract that and add Winston’s arm velocity and playmaking ability to a perennial Top 10 defense. That’s a recipe for double-digit wins.
Detroit Lions “Under” 4.5 wins (+115)
It’s going to be a long year in the Motor City. Detroit starts its season at home vs. San Francisco, at Green Bay then back home for Baltimore. That’s very likely an 0-3 start before back-to-back weeks on the road in Chicago and Minnesota. 0-5, anybody? The Lions will win a few games this season, but I literally can’t pencil in any Ws — except for maybe at home versus Philadelphia. Maybe. I loved the selection of Penei Sewell in the NFL draft, but outside of Sewell, D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, nobody on that offense is in the long-term plan. Let’s not forget that Sean McVay masked a lot of Jared Goff’s weaknesses in Los Angeles. Goff’s life won’t get any easier with Anthony Lynn calling the plays.
Packers “Over” 10 wins (-165)
Saints “Over” 9 wins (+100)
Lions “Under” 4.5 wins (+115)
RECORD: (47-44, -1.2)