Weekend Football Picks: Jaguars Getting Too Many Points Against Denver

Here are Sam's five football picks this weekend


September 17, 2021

Last weekend’s football picks went 2-3 thanks to two deep Russell Wilson touchdown passes and Iowa State turning the ball over four times against Iowa.

Thems the breaks sometimes.

If you’re new around these parts, this is not a place where you’ll find a million betting picks. I isolate the picks I really, really like and roll with those. Nothing more, nothing less. Don’t expect to see any five-team parlays or “locks” on primetime games, either.

Let’s go to work.

Denver Broncos (-6, O/U 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars +6

You probably hate his pick and that’s okay. Denver enters this game as one of the most overinflated teams in the National Football League. The Broncos were -3 on the lookahead line and now they’re laying six after an impressive win Week 1 combined with Jacksonville’s abysmal performance against Houston. Those two variables have given me extra points to play with and I like the Jaguars in the heat against a Broncos team playing their second straight game far, far away from home.

Purdue at Notre Dame (-7, O/U 58)
Notre Dame -7

Expect the Fighting Irish to play their first complete game of the season against Purdue. This is also the first spot where Notre Dame will have a full week of rest or won’t have to travel. And you already know I’m high on Toledo this season, so I don’t dog the Irish too much for last weekend’s performance against a very solid Rockets team. The Boilermakers are without starting tailback Zander Horvath, which puts a lot of pressure on QB Jack Plummer in Purdue’s first real test of the season.

Northern Illinois at Michigan (-27.5, O/U 54.5)
Under 54.5 points

Michigan’s outstanding defense should make quick work against an overmatched Northern Illinois squad that won’t be able to run the ball with much success. This is a semi-sandwich spot for the Wolverines after beating Washington and having a much better Rutgers team on deck. NIU quarterback Rocky Lombardi has seen Michigan quite a bit from his Michigan State days, but he doesn’t have the offensive line or the weapons to make things interesting in Ann Arbor. This one has 34-13 written all over it.

Tulsa at Ohio State (-24.5, O/U 61)
Over 61 points

The Buckeyes are dangerous coming off a loss and head coach Ryan Day is no stranger to running up the score when need be. Ohio State could easily score 50 points with all the weapons it has on the offensive side of the ball and given the circumstances, they’ve got something to prove after last weekend’s embarrassing loss to a very good Oregon team. I figure Tulsa needs to score 14 or 17 points on Saturday and that will be enough to get me “Over” 61.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, O/U 55)
Cowboys +3.5

This number opened Chargers -2.5 and it was immediately bet to -3. The line has since crossed through the “3” after a crushing foot injury to Dallas defensive end Demarcus Lawrence. Thing is, I’m on the Cowboys because of their explosive offense. Quarterback Dak Prescott looked incredible against the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on opening night and I love that Dallas gets three extra days to prepare. Zeke Elliott should also get more carries and touches to negate the Chargers pass rush. There won’t be many stops in this game and I’ll take the 3.5 points.

Good luck.

Sam’s Picks
Jaguars +6 (-110)
Notre Dame -7 (-115)
NIU/Michigan U54.5 (-110)

Tulsa/OSU O61 (-110)
Cowboys +3.5 (-110)

RECORD: (50-47, -1.5)

Thumbnail photo via Credit: Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports Images

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