Bills-Chiefs Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For ‘Sunday Night Football’

The gem of Week 5 comes under the Sunday night lights

by

October 10, 2021

We’re saving the best for last Sunday when it comes to Week 5 of the NFL season.

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium for “Sunday Night Football” in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs, who won that game rather handily, are looking to reestablish themselves as the AFC’s top team after an uneven 2-2 start.

The Bills, meanwhile, believe they’re the best the AFC has to offer after winning three of their first four games, with their victories coming by an average of 33 points. That being said, this KC team is by far the stiffest challenge Buffalo has faced this season.

Here’s our betting preview for Sunday night’s playoff rematch, with all betting lines coming from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Buffalo Bills at (-3) Kansas City Chiefs
Total:
56.5

BETTING TRENDS
It’s been a long time since the Chiefs were just a field goal favorite at home. The last time KC was laying a field goal or less at Arrowhead was October of 2018 when it crushed Jacksonville 30-14. In fact, the Chiefs are 4-0 straight-up and against the spread in their last four regular-season home games as a field goal favorite or less. The Chiefs were, however, 3-point favorites in the aforementioned AFC Championship Game last season and beat Buffalo 38-24. Kansas City’s struggles to cover have been well documented in the last year or so. KC won 15 of its last 20 games — counting both regular season and playoffs — but is just 6-13-1 ATS in that stretch. The Chiefs’ win and cover last week against Philadelphia broke a streak of four games failing to cover, and they’re just 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15.

The Bills, meanwhile, have been quite profitable lately. They’re 3-1 ATS to begin the season and have covered 12 of their last 15 games, including the playoffs.

PROPS
First touchdown scorer
Tyreek Hill +750
Travis Kelce +750
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +900
Stefon Diggs +900
Josh Allen +1200
Emmanual Sanders +1300
Zack Moss +1400

Passing yards
Josh Allen over/under 305.5
Patrick Mahomes over/under 301.5

Rushing yards
Clyde Edwards-Helaire over/under 52.5
Zack Moss over/under 38.5
Josh Allen over/under 32.5

Receiving yards
Tyreek Hill over/under 87.5 yards
Stefon Diggs over/under 86.5 yards
Travis Kelce over/under 86.5 yards
Cole Beasley over/under 52.5 yards

PICK
Longest touchdown under 43.5 yards
Given the offensive firepower on both teams, this one really is uncomfortable to lock in. However, we’ve got a few things working in our favor here. The first is the Buffalo defense. Sean McDermott’s team has been really good defensively, and yes, the competition has been suspect. But there’s some talent in the secondary, and a player like Tyreek Hill certainly will be a focal point of the defensive plan. On the other side, as good as the scores have looked — Buffalo is averaging 33.5 points per game — the offense won’t be confused for the Greatest Show on Turf anytime soon. The Bills rank 22nd in explosive run play and 23 in explosive pass rate. That doesn’t mean they won’t find the end zone, but it might not come on a barrage of deep plays.

Thumbnail photo via Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports Images

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