Week 8 is here, and the NFL is in the midst of a spooky season. And we’re not just talking about Halloween.
The gap between the haves and the have-nots feels like it’s never been bigger, and that again will be on display this week. At least three games will feature point spreads of 10 points or higher, a number that ultimately could grow to four if there’s more action on the Kansas City Chiefs ahead of their Monday night throwdown with the New York Giants.
Also, the Thursday night dream matchup between the 6-1 Packers and 7-0 Cardinals took a bit of a hit this week with Green Bay likely down its top two receivers, including All-Pro wideout Davante Adams, after a mini COVID-19 outbreak.
Nonetheless, we all push on and certainly will make plenty of time for football while handing out candy when Sunday rolls around.
And speaking of trick or treat, there likely will be a lot more of the former for NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle as they make their against-the-spread picks for each and every game on the calendar.
Here’s how they fared last week.
Here are their Week 8 picks, with lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
THURSDAY, OCT. 28
Green Bay Packers at (-6.5) Arizona Cardinals, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Packers. This is going to sound silly when this turns into a classic “Packers get their heads kicked in,” but I think Aaron Rodgers takes it on himself here to have another signature moment without his two top receivers and finds a way to give Arizona all it can handle.
Ricky: Packers. Green Bay is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in its last nine primetime games. Arizona is the better team on paper, but counting out Rodgers to at least cover in this spot — where the spread has climbed rather significantly thanks to the Packers’ COVID situation — seems ill-advised.
SUNDAY, OCT. 31
(-10) Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bengals. There’s potential for a letdown here for Cincinnati, but it’s also just as possible the Bengals have some real momentum after stomping the Ravens last week. There’s also the fact New York is starting Mike Smith at quarterback, who I’m fairly certain is a made-up “Madden” player.
Ricky: Jets. I hate that I’m doing this, especially since the Bengals look like legitimate AFC contenders. But the letdown potential in between a blowout win over Baltimore and another divisional clash with Cleveland is too much to ignore.
Miami Dolphins at (-14) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bills. Buffalo played a relatively sloppy Week 2 game in Miami and beat the Dolphins 35-0. Now, Buffalo is coming off its bye and should be pretty ticked off having an extra week to mull its Week 6 loss to the Titans.
Ricky: Dolphins. Since 2018, no team has a better cover percentage (65%) in divisional games than Miami. So, maybe the ‘Fins pull something out of their keisters to keep this close, with Tua Tagovailoa playing inspired football amid the Deshaun Watson trade rumors?
(-14) Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. The Rams have been favored by 13 or more points five times under Sean McVay. They’re just 3-2 in those games and have covered only once. Whether it’s playing down or trying to be smart, they typically play tighter games than expected in these spots.
Ricky: Texans. Tyrod Taylor might return for Houston this week. While that’ll likely do little to impact the game from a win-loss standpoint, it could be enough of a boost to keep the Texans within the number at home against a Rams team that has a Sunday night date with the upstart Titans next week.
(-1) Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans. Tennessee’s offense is coming alive thanks to its play-action; the Titans are 3-0 when using the play fake on more than 30% of dropbacks, including a Week 3 win over Indy. Also, Tennessee’s pass rush has been among the best in the NFL, and Carson Wentz — who is pressured on 40% of dropbacks — has a passer rating 35 points lower under pressure.
Ricky: Colts. No one can really stop Derrick Henry, right? But Indianapolis is equipped to slow the superstar running back, forcing Tennessee into some difficult third-and-longs. The Colts’ defense ranks No. 1 in rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and No. 1 in rush EPA. The Titans’ offensive line, meanwhile, has been banged up in recent weeks.
(-3.5) Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions. I’d like to announce my official retirement from falling for the Eagles. Nick Sirianni has been reduced to rambling about flowers, and I actually like how competitive the Lions are, so let’s roll with Detroit.
Ricky: Lions. The Eagles have allowed the fourth-most receptions to running backs and third-most receptions to tight ends, setting up D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson for success as Detroit pulls off the upset for its first victory of the 2021 season.
Pittsburgh Steelers at (-3.5) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. The Steelers’ offense is objectively bad, near the bottom of the league in just about any measure. Cleveland, especially with the number of injuries it has, isn’t a whole lot better right now, but the Browns’ defense is just as good, so it’s hard to see where points come from for Pittsburgh.
Ricky: Browns. Cleveland looks capable of running the football regardless of who’s in the backfield, a testament to the team’s offensive line, which now welcomes back All-Pro tackle Jack Conklin.
(-3.5) San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. Chicago won’t have Khalil Mack, but the Bears typically have been waxed by good teams while playing lesser teams tough. That’s not unlike most of the league, of course, but it feels like a good spot to grab those points at home.
Ricky: Bears. The total (39.5) suggests there won’t be many points in this game. Makes sense, seeing as both teams enter with struggling offenses. As such, I’ll take the field goal and the hook with the hosts. Chicago boasts a good enough defense to be competitive against second-rate competition.
Carolina Panthers at (-3) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m
Mike: Panthers. Carolina’s strength at the moment is probably its ability to rush the passer, and Atlanta has struggled to protect Matt Ryan, who gets pressured one out of every three dropbacks. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see signs of life from the Panthers’ offense against a Falcons secondary that is better than only Houston and Jacksonville in opponent passer rating.
Ricky: Falcons. The Panthers’ offense is a mess without Christian McCaffrey, averaging an NFL-worst 3.7 yards per play over Carolina’s last three games. The Falcons’ offense, meanwhile, is coming alive, with Kyle Pitts starting to flourish as a top target for Matty Ice.
New England Patriots at (-5.5) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Chargers. Waffled on this one, and the Patriots definitely feel like a team that can expose LA’s weaknesses … but the gulf in talent is too much to ignore. New England has injuries in the secondary, which the Chargers should be able to exploit and build an early lead that takes away the Patriots’ running game, its clear path to keeping it close.
Ricky: Patriots. Josh McDaniels has been getting more creative with New England’s offense, but this week might require an old-school, ground-and-pound approach. The Chargers’ defense has been awful against the run — dead-last in rush EPA and rush success rate — and the Patriots seemingly have found an offensive line combination that works, paving the way for Damien Harris to hit his stride as New England’s primary ball carrier.
Jacksonville Jaguars at (-3.5) Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. Complete and utter square pick, but the Seahawks have played good defense in recent weeks. They haven’t been able to do anything with it with Geno Smith under center, but it’s hard to have any confidence about Jacksonville going in there and doing much of anything on offense. This has 17-7 written all over it.
Ricky: Seahawks. Jacksonville has one of the NFL’s worst defenses, by nearly every measure. Even Smith, who hasn’t been that bad since replacing an injured Russell Wilson, should move the bacon with relative ease, especially with Seattle’s skill players on the outside posing serious matchup problems for the Jags.
(-5.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bucs. The Saints haven’t really faced a high-powered offense all year, especially if you want to just cross off that Week 1 win over the Packers. Even so, the Bucs statistically have the best offense in the NFL (by both EPA and DVOA), which could leave New Orleans in the dust.
Ricky: Saints. While this game represents a great opportunity for Jameis Winston to exact revenge against his former team, it’ll be New Orleans’ defense that determines whether the Saints can make it six straight regular-season wins (and covers) over the Bucs. Only the Bills and Cardinals have a better defensive DVOA than the Saints, who are solid against both the run and the pass. Take the points.
Washington Football Team at (-3) Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Football Team. Denver might actually stink, while Washington played a solid game last week in Green Bay but had some rotten goal-line luck. Banking on that turning around this week.
Ricky: Broncos. Denver is at a rest advantage, having played on Thursday night in Week 7, and will receive a much-needed offensive spark with the expected return of wide receiver Jerry Jeudy.
(-3) Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings, 8:25 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. Getting points at home in Minnesota is nice, and I think the Vikings have the elements to ground down the high-flying Cowboys. The Vikings don’t turn the ball over (five turnovers all year), which has been a huge key for the Dallas defense this season, and it would make sense for a run-heavy attack to set up some bigger pass plays to keep Minnesota in this one.
Ricky: Cowboys. The Vikings feel like a poor man’s Cowboys. And while Dallas’ offense understandably receives all the praise, the defense has been decent, too, ranking 10th in DVOA. One interesting tidbit: the Cowboys have the league’s fastest collection of defensive backs, per ESPN Stats & Information and data from NFL Next Gen Stats, while the Vikings’ wide receivers and tight ends rank 24th in terms of speed.
MONDAY, NOV. 1
New York Giants at (-9.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs. Trying to stay in the moment here and ignore just how bad Kansas City has looked and how good the Giants were last week. On the second part, at least, New York had allowed 44 and 38 points in consecutive weeks to good offenses (Dallas, Rams) before suffocating Carolina. I know we keep saying this, but the Chiefs should get a bounce-back effort here. Finally.
Ricky: Chiefs. If this isn’t a get-right spot for the Chiefs — at home, on Monday night, against a 2-5 team, after being called out left and right — then Kansas City’s problems are legit.
