Betting and picking NFL games is so difficult it makes you wonder why we even do it. However, there are ways to improve your chances of correctly prognosticating the sharpest sport in America.
A lot of times — not always — the best way to succeed while picking NFL games is to get down on games early in the week. Obviously, it’s easier and sometimes more enjoyable to load up just before kickoff Sunday. But a lot of times, you’re getting a number that’s been bet into all week, and the final spread will indicate as much. Sometimes, you’re just not getting the best number.
That being said, we have already taken a look at the NFL Week 8 lines and searched for three games we’d circle for early-week action, as the lines have the potential to move before Sunday.
Here are those three games with Monday morning betting lines pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Buffalo Bills (-13.5) versus Miami Dolphins: If you like the Bills this week, as you probably should, you better hurry. This game opened at 11.5 and unsurprisingly was bet up to 13.5. If you can get it before it gets to 14, that sure feels like the smart play, especially given how much the public is already and will continue to be on Buffalo. The Bills are 4-0 after the bye under Sean McDermott, winning those games by an average of about a touchdown. Sure, they’ll need to double that against Miami to cover the number, but the Dolphins are playing their fourth game in as many cities (including London), and only Houston has a worse yards per play differential this season. The Bills will also be looking to reassert themselves as an AFC power following their Week 6 loss to the Tennessee Titans.
Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) versus New England Patriots: The Patriots have three wins this season. Two of those wins came against the Jets, and the third was a hang-onto-your-butts survival against an awful Houston team. The combined record of New York and Houston? That would be 2-11. LA, meanwhile, is one of six teams coming off a bye, which means the Chargers will have extra time to game plan for the Patriots, and they’ll need it in order to get their run defense right. However, we’re two weeks removed from Dallas racing up and down the field against the Patriots, so it’s conceivable to think LA — which also owns a very good offense — should be able to turn this into a track meet, potentially erasing the Patriots’ main advantage on the ground. Assuming the public isn’t swayed by New England running up the score on the lowly Jets, getting this before it gets to a touchdown could look prudent by Sunday.
Tennessee Titans (+1) at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts’ win at San Francisco on Sunday night didn’t do much to change their perception. This game opened at Indy -2.5, and bettors jumped all over the Titans getting points. That we’re only getting the point here is tough. But if this public effort keeps up, Tennessee is going to be laying points by kickoff. The Titans’ offense looks like it’s finally coming into form, especially through the air. Tennessee is fifth in the NFL in EPA per pass play the last two weeks, which undoubtedly is helped by a woeful Kansas City Chiefs defense. But don’t forget, the Titans took it to a good Buffalo defense in Week 6. Indy, on the other hand, has injuries in the secondary which San Francisco couldn’t expose Sunday night due to the weather and the 49ers’ general offensive ineptitude. The Titans look like the pick in a shootout.
