Favorites were good Tuesday night in the NHL, with seven of 11 betting favorites besting their counterparts. Unders were slightly less reliable with six going low, compared to four overs and one push, meaning low-scoring games are cashing at a 64.3% rate since Saturday. That leads us into a quiet Wednesday night in the NHL with only two games scheduled.
These are our picks, per the lines from FanDuel Sportsbook!
Boston Bruins vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Moneyline: Bruins -154 | Flyers +130
Spread: Bruins -1.5 (+164) | Flyers +1.5 (-200)
Total: 5.5 Over -122 | Under +100
Bettors are already catching on to the Flyers’ high-scoring ways. In both of their contests, the Flyers hit the over, first losing in a shootout 5-4 to the Vancouver Canucks and then trouncing the Seattle Kraken 6-1. However, the Flyers’ output appears beyond sustainable levels.
Philadelphia has the fourth-best high-danger shooting percentage and second-best shooting percentage overall at five-on-five. Those inflated output metrics come despite middle-of-the-pack production metrics, as the Flyers have attempted 16 high-danger chances and 40 scoring chances through two games. The Flyers have also benefitted from an easy home schedule to start the season. They’ll face a more structured Bruins team Wednesday night.
We know what to expect from Boston, and it didn’t disappoint in its season-opening win. The Bruins limited the Dallas Stars to 13 scoring chances and only three high-danger chances in over 41 minutes of five-on-five action on Sunday. The Stars finished that game with six power plays, three more than the Bruins, and still only managed 27 shots, 26 scoring chances, and four high-danger opportunities.
The Flyers; offense will face new challenges on Wednesday night and were already operating above normal levels. We’re expecting their output metrics to tumble against the B’s and this game to stay under the total.
The Picks: Under 5.5 +100
St. Louis Blues vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Moneyline: Blues +118 | Golden Knights -138
Spread: Blues +1.5 (-225) | Golden Knights (+184)
Total: 5.5 Over -118 | Under -104
The Golden Knights are getting a taste of what life is like without Marc-Andre Fleury, and things are off to a rocky start. The Golden Knights are 1-1-0 to start the season, and goals against have been an issue against two inferior opponents.
It’s important not to overreact to a two-game sample, but the parameters of their first two games favored the Knights. Vegas had a favorable matchup with the expansion Kraken on opening night and then a meeting with the subpar Los Angeles Kings. The Golden Knights gave up a combined nine goals in those games, seven of which came at five-on-five while getting objectively outplayed in both contests. We have to go back to February 2020 to find a two-game sample in which the Knights gave up nine goals.
Vegas’ defensive woes could be perpetrated against a Blues team operating efficiently to start the season. The Blues lead the league in shooting percentage, scoring 12 goals through their first two games. Although their shooting percentage will inevitably come down, it’s unlikely to come against a goalie fighting the puck to start the season.
Robin Lehner is stopping just 88.7% of shots to start the season, and that could fall even further after tonight’s contest. The price has moved in favor of the Golden Knights, but it’s the underdog Blues who are worth backing tonight.
The Picks: Blues +118
All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid