NHL Odds: Pair Of Underdogs Poised For Upsets Tuesday Night

Rogers Arena will be rocking Tuesday night

by

October 26, 2021

The high-scoring trend we’ve seen in the NHL could be drawing to a close after there was an even split on over and under on Monday’s slate. There’s a seven-game slate to look forward to Tuesday in NHL action, highlighted by a pair of ideal betting spots, which we’re breaking down our two favorite wagers in our daily NHL Betting Guide.

These are the wagers we’re looking at from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Minnesota Wild vs. Vancouver Canucks
Moneyline: Wild -118, Canucks +100
Spread: Wild -1.5 (+215), Canucks +1.5 (-265)
Total (5.5): Over -115, Under -105

The Canucks will be the second-last team to play a home game when they host the Wild on Tuesday night. The betting market favors the Wild, but our analysis supports that the Canucks are the right side to be on Tuesday.

Vancouver is coming off consecutive victories over the Seattle Kraken and Chicago Blackhawks. Thatcher Demko has figured in those victories, and he is set up for another strong outing against the Wild. Demko has been great at home throughout his career, posting a 91.9% save percentage and going 21-14-2. The 26-year-old is coming in hot, stopping 95.1% of shots in each of his past two starts and posting above-average metrics in powerplay and high-danger save percentage.

Line matching is critical for the Canucks, as they put their youngsters out under ideal circumstances, and that’s reflected in their metrics. Last season, Vancouver posted an expected goals-for percentage of 48.4% at five-on-five on home-ice, compared to 41.3% on the road.

The Canucks have another year of development under their belts, and they are already starting to see improvements in their metrics. Across all strengths, the Canucks have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in three of their past five. That reflects their improved metrics over last season and their reliance on their powerplay to generate offense.

This season, the Wild have been hamstrung by their penalty kill, giving up seven powerplay goals over their first five contests for a kill rate of just 69.6%. That’s a bad look for the Wild, as they’ll be trying to limit a powerplay that scores on 21.8% of opportunities.

The more significant issue for the Wild this season has been goaltending. Cam Talbot and Kaapo Kahkonen have combined for the eighth-worst save percentage this season despite facing the fifth-least shots. The Canucks offense was more efficient on home ice last season, and they’ll be coming out firing in their first home game of the season.

Vancouver is playing in front of fans on home ice for the first time in over 19 months. Their metrics are improved on home ice, and they can expose the Wild’s questionable goaltending and subpar penalty kill tonight. The Canucks are the side to be on.

Pick: Canucks +100

Winnipeg Jets vs. Anaheim Ducks
Moneyline: Jets -130, Ducks +110
Spread: Jets -1.5 (+195), Ducks +1.5 (-240)
Total (5.5): Over -110, Under -110

Somehow the Jets continue to win games despite lackluster advanced metrics. The Jets are priced as betting favorites on the road against the Ducks, despite posting some of the worst metrics in the league as visitors. 

The Jets have played three road games this season and are averaging 4.3 high-danger and 14.7 scoring chances at five-on-five. Those metrics improve marginally across all strengths, jumping up to 7.0 and 24.0 across all strengths. Winnipeg has posted three or more goals in two of those three games, thanks to an inflated 10.3% shooting percentage. The Jets offense isn’t as good as it has shown early this season and will regress towards the mean.

Anaheim is back on home ice after an unsuccessful four-game road trip, in which it dropped all four decisions. However, the Ducks improved their defensive standing as the trip progressed, allowing nine or fewer high-danger chances and 22 or fewer scoring opportunities in each of their past two games.

That should make things easier on John Gibson, who has been a much different goalie on home ice this season compared to on the road. Gibson has a 97.0% save percentage at home, compared to 90.5% on the road, but has 1.5 goals-saved above average across all four starts. Undoubtedly, Gibson’s home and road splits will balance out throughout the season, but we’re not expecting significant regression against a Jets’ offense that fails to generate anything on the road.

The Jets’ road woes aren’t limited to this season, and the Ducks have been better on home ice. We’re betting the Ducks get the better of the Jets as these teams meet for the third time this season already.

Pick: Ducks +110

Thumbnail photo via Perry Nelson/USA TODAY Sports Images

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