Red Sox Vs. Yankees Betting Preview: AL Wild Card Game Pick, Prop Bets
Boston is a very slight home underdog
The Red Sox and Yankees will renew their rivalry Tuesday night at Fenway Park in the 2021 American League Wild Card Game.
The AL East foes finished the Major League Baseball regular season with identical records (92-70), and Boston narrowly edged New York in the head-to-head tiebreaker (10-9) to secure the top wild-card spot and home-field advantage for the winner-take-all showdown.
So, it’s fair to say we’re looking at a toss-up, especially with Tuesday’s starting pitchers — Nathan Eovaldi for the Red Sox and Gerrit Cole for the Yankees — each coming off a solid campaign. And the betting odds for the matchup certainly reflect that.
Let’s take a look at the odds, courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook, along with three prop bets to consider and a prediction for the game, the winner of which will face the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Division Series.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park
Tuesday, Oct. 5, 8:08 p.m. ET
Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+125), Red Sox +1.5 (-145)
Total: Over 8 (-105), Under 8 (-115)
Moneyline: Yankees -135, Red Sox +115
Three prop bets to consider:
1. Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 strikeouts (-115)
The Yankees had MLB’s sixth-highest strikeout rate during the regular season (24.5%). And Eovaldi, while not a huge strikeout guy (9.6 K/9), has struck out at least six batters in 15 of his last 17 starts.
2. Aaron Judge Over 0.5 home runs (+360)
Judge, one of baseball’s premier power hitters, not only is coming off a 10-homer September. He’s also one of the few Yankees players who has performed well against Eovaldi in his career, batting .391 (9-for-23) with a home run against the hard-throwing right-hander.
Eovaldi has done a solid job of limiting the long ball this season, while mostly dominating the Yankees, but Judge is capable of impacting the scoreboard with one swing. He’s always a threat to go deep, particularly in a game of this magnitude.
3. Yankees to score first and lose (+380)
Both teams have excelled when scoring first, with Boston posting a 57-28 record and New York going 60-22. No surprise there. But the Red Sox also led the majors with 47 come-from-behind wins this season, and Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman has had some hiccups against Boston in the past, with Fenway Park not being all that friendly to the seven-time All-Star.
Pick: Red Sox +115
Some might argue there’s no such thing as “clutch,” but it’s hard to ignore Eovaldi’s excellent 2018 postseason run. Just like it’s hard to ignore Cole’s struggles down the stretch and overall regression since MLB started to crack down on sticky substances.
Ultimately, we’re trusting Red Sox manager Alex Cora more than Yankees skipper Aaron Boone when the game inevitably becomes tight. Boston has more positional depth and is poised to own the later innings when playing matchups becomes paramount.
