There’s no delicate way to put this: The selection of NFL games on Thanksgiving this season is, well, underwhelming — but isn’t that’s what betting is for?
There is no worse contest on the three-game slate than the opener, pitting the Chicago Bears against the Lions, as the tradition of lowly Detroit hosting a Turkey Day game remains one of the worst in sports. This one is made even worse by the fact we’ll likely be seeing a matchup of two backup quarterbacks, as rookie Justin Fields — perhaps the saving grace from a storyline standpoint — will be questionable with a rib injury suffered Sunday.
But, as we said, there are always betting options, especially when the alternative is socializing with your weird aunt.
So here’s our betting preview for Bears-Lions on Thanksgiving.
(-3.5) Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Total: 41.5
BETTING TRENDS
Do yourself a favor and actually throw out the records when these two teams meet, as they’re a combined 3-16-1 this season. It’s the 19th time the Bears and Lions have met on Thanksgiving and, for some reason, it’s the third time since 2018 the schedule-makers have felt compelled to subject football fans to this game. Chicago won in both 2018 and 2019, failing to cover in the ’19 matchup, though.
The Bears have been a complete disaster lately, and Matt Nagy’s job obviously should be in jeopardy. Chicago has lost its last five games and hasn’t been a good bet, either, failing to cover in four of those five losses. As Odds Shark points out, the Bears have been miserable in the division, too, going 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 NFC North games.
For all their faults (they have yet to win), the Lions are a fairly feisty bunch, at least when it comes to covering the number. Detroit has a 6-4 ATS record this season (2-2 ATS at home) and has covered three of its last five games, including a tie two weeks ago in Pittsburgh. However, the Lions are typically at their covering best against bigger numbers. Detroit has been an underdog of four points or less three times this season and has lost all three by an average of 24 points.
GAME PROPS
First-half line, total
Chicago -2.5, 20.5
Team totals
Chicago over/under 22.5
Detroit over/under 18.5
PICK
Detroit, +3.5 — The Lions are terrible, but at least they’re competitive. Looking at the longer-term outlook for either of these teams, and it’s clear Dan Campbell is at least building some momentum in Detroit while Nagy’s tenure is likely nearing its end. It feels likely the play of these two teams reflects as much, especially with Chicago facing the relative burden of traveling to play on Thanksgiving. As for the Lions, this is their Super Bowl, and if Campbell can do anything as an NFL head coach, it is motivate his team. It would be borderline shocking if the Lions came out flat Thursday.
That Detroit either won’t have to worry about Fields or that he’ll be compromised only makes the Lions the more attractive option. Admittedly, it will be difficult for the Lions to score points with either Jared Goff or Tim Boyle under center, but the defense has been actually quite good since the bye week, allowing just 29 points over two games against opponents that scored a combined 55 points versus Chicago’s defense. That might be grasping for straws, but such is life when choosing between the Bears and Lions.
