The Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints meet Thursday night in Louisiana as you’ll likely be waking up from your second nap after a plentiful Thanksgiving feast.
Buffalo started the season 4-1, but has really struggled over the last five weeks. The Bills are just 2-3 since then with a shootout loss at Tennessee, an unexplainable 9-6 dud at Jacksonville and a 26-point beatdown by Indianapolis in Orchard Park. They’ve also been leapt by the New England Patriots in the AFC East standings.
Meanwhile, New Orleans has been decimated by injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Jameis Winston is out for the season with a torn ACL, wide receiver Michael Thomas hasn’t played a snap all season, running back Alvin Kamara is still out with a bad knee and running back Mark Ingram is a game-time decision.
Here’s our betting preview for Thursday night’s Bills-Saints game with all lines, totals and prop bets from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints
Total: 45
BETTING TRENDS
Bills
4-0-1 against the spread (ATS) last five games following a loss
10-3-1 ATS last 14 games in November
7-3 ATS last 10 road games
1-3-1 last five games as the favorite
“Over” 7-3 last 10 road games
Saints
6-0 ATS last six games off an ATS loss
8-2 ATS last 10 games as home underdog
35-17 ATS last 52 games when catching points
“Over” 9-4 last 13 games against winning teams
GAME PROPS
First-half line, total
Bills -3.5, 22.5
Bills total team points over/under 26.5
Saints total team points over/under 19.5
PLAYER PROPS
First touchdown scorer
Mark Ingram +700
Stefon Diggs +800
Josh Allen +1200
Emmanuel Sanders +1200
Dawson Knox +1200
Marquez Callaway +1400
Zack Moss +1600
Cole Beasley +1600
Tre’Quan Smith +1600
PICK
Josh Allen Over 277.5 passing yards — Allen has only hit this number in four games this season, but let’s consider the positives heading into Thursday night. Buffalo hasn’t been able to run the football with success at all and the Saints have the third-best run defense in the NFL. Time to pass! There’s a very realistic chance that Allen throws the rock 40 times against a New Orleans pass defense that ranks in the bottom-third of the league. The Saints can definitely be beaten down the field and the Bills receiver room is loaded with weapons. If Buffalo doesn’t get too cute, Allen could be in for a huge day. He’ll also have perfect throwing conditions inside the Caesars Superdome and won’t have to deal with any wind or weather. All things are lining up perfectly for an aerial attack from the former Wyoming Cowboy.
