On Sunday, the Golden State Warriors won by double-digits against the Clippers to push our winning streak to five games. If you haven’t hopped on board, then what are you waiting for? We’ll look to make it six straight wins by backing another undervalued team on the road.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
The Indiana Pacers are a bit undervalued because they’re currently four games under .500. However, they’re the only team below .500 with a positive point differential (+1.4) in the league. And after a double-digit loss on Sunday at home to the Bucks, this is the perfect spot for the Pacers to have a bounceback effort. The fact that Indiana’s playing its second game in as many nights shouldn’t be a problem as it’s 3-1 straight up in this spot.
Indiana’s 14th in offensive efficiency, while Minnesota’s ranked 21st. That should bode well for the Pacers, considering that the Timberwolves are allowing roughly 109 points per 100 possessions over their past three games. Defensively, the Pacers should be able to slow down the Timberwolves perimeter shooting as they’re ranked fourth in allowing just 10.7 three-point field goals per game. Furthermore, over its previous three games, Indiana’s allowed just ten three-point field goals per game.
With six wins in its previous seven games, we’ve seen the Timberwolves become a bit overvalued in the market. That’s precisely why sharp bettors slashed this point spread in half after Minnesota opened as a four-point favorite.
Wiseguys aren’t taken the bait, and neither am I. This is an excellent spot for a contrarian play with two teams that are pretty evenly matched.
The head-to-head series certainly favors the Pacers in this matchup as they’re 6-1 ATS on the road against the Timberwolves and 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings. While I’m a bit disappointed I didn’t get the best of the number, I’ll look to buy the Pacers up to +3.5 at -140 odds. I never like laying that kind of juice, but I think it’s worth it in this spot to get closer to the opening number of +4.
I don’t want to give all our winnings back to the bookmakers so that I won’t risk any more than a half-unit on this play.
Pick: Pacers +3.5 (-140)