NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday, November 16: Wrong Team Favored In Brooklyn

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November 16, 2021

It’s amazing how sharp the bookmakers can be at times. On Monday, we backed the Wizards as -4.5 home favorites against New Orleans, and they eked out the victory 105-100. Somehow we finally got our revenge against the Pelicans after they cost us a few units last week.

Tuesday’s card features only three games, but one of them is an absolute blockbuster affair. I’m talking about none other than the Brooklyn Nets hosting the Golden State Warriors. Since the team schedules were announced, I’ve had this game circled on the calendar, and I can’t wait to break it all down.

Golden State Warriors vs. Brooklyn Nets, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Warriors +160 | Nets -190

Spread: Nets -3

Total: 221

NBA Championship Odds: Warriors +750 | Nets +260

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Golden State Warriors vs. Brooklyn Nets, News, Analysis, and Picks

The Golden State Warriors have the best record in the NBA, and yet they’re catching three points on the road to the Brooklyn Nets? This matchup features two of the best players in the league at the moment in Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. Both will be competing against one another again after being teammates and winning a championship with the Warriors.

For my money, I’m not sure there’s been a player that’s had more influence on a basketball game since Michael Jordan than Curry. To watch Curry shoot the ball is truly a work of art, and at the age of 33, it doesn’t seem as if he’s close to slowing down. But there’s something organic about the new-look Warriors team this season. Their complementary pieces seem to fit much better this time around as they continue building from within and drafting the right players to create the necessary balance in the team. I don’t see any mercenaries on this roster like the hired guns the Nets have in Durant and James Harden.

Sometimes how you win is just as important as winning altogether.

As for the game itself, the Warriors come into the matchup ranked second in offensive efficiency with 109.4 points per 100 possessions. That’s nine spots higher than the Nets, who have an efficiency of 106.2 points per 100 possessions. While that’s undoubtedly an important stat to note, I’m convinced that the winner of this game will be the team that puts forth more effort on the defensive end. That’s where the Warriors are superior to the Nets in that they lead the league in defensive efficiency (96.9 points allowed per 100 possessions). In contrast, the Nets are eighth in, allowing 101.3 points per 100 possessions.

If anyone knows how to slow down Durant, it’s the Warriors. After all, they observed him in games and during practice when he was on the team. Look for Draymond Green to draw the assignment of guarding Durant, and Green should have some insight on just how to get under KD’s skin.

I think it’ll be much more challenging for the Nets to contain Curry, who’s averaging 28.1 points and 5.2 three-pointers per game. The three-point shot can easily be the great equalizer, and no team takes advantage of it better than the Warriors. Golden State leads the league with 15.2 three-point field goals per game, and Curry’s a big reason for that.

This is an excellent opportunity to back the Warriors off a loss as they’re 7-1 ATS in their past eight games in this spot. In contrast, the Nets are 1-7 ATS in their previous eight games off an ATS win. Both trends are active tonight. At first glance, I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Nonetheless, I won’t pass up pocketing the three points with the road underdogs.

Pick: Warriors +3

All NBA game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
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Thumbnail photo via Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

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