The Odell Beckham Jr. saga certainly has been the main talking point of Week 10 in the NFL — Aaron Rodgers’ COVID fiasco sure seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it? — but there are actual games to play.
We’re into the playoff push, and there are plenty of matchups this week with massive postseason implications. NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are back to tackle not only those games but everything on the Week 10 slate with their against-the-spread picks.
To hear Mike and Ricky yuck it up about the most anticipated showdowns, be sure to listen to this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast.
We should note both Mike and Ricky had a historically bad showing in Week 9. It happens.
Now, we’re on to Week 10. Here are their ATS picks, with betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
THURSDAY, NOV. 11
(-7.5) Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. Somehow, someway, Miami finds just enough offense to take advantage of a questionable Ravens defense. Baltimore also is in a bit of a letdown spot here, coming off a physical overtime win last week and having to travel and play on short rest.
Ricky: Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa’s finger injury adds an extra layer of uncertainty to this matchup, but Jacoby Brissett will dink and dunk his way adequately enough to keep the score within the number. Baltimore ranks 31st in DVOA against running backs as receivers, which should mean a ton of volume for Myles Gaskin, a solid pass-catching RB.
SUNDAY, NOV. 14
Cleveland Browns at (-2.5) New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. Not entirely sure who runs the ball for Cleveland, but I do believe the Browns can bully the Patriots at the line of scrimmage. Their defense also is especially formidable, and New England has struggled to score points without the aid of special teams or the defense.
Ricky: Browns. The Patriots will be competitive most weeks due to their work in the trenches. The problem this week is Cleveland has the horses up front — on both sides of the ball — to negate the advantage New England often has in those areas.
(-9.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bucs. When you look at the fancy stats like EPA and DVOA, Washington is near or at the bottom when it comes to pass defense. Now, that woeful secondary is tasked with stopping Tom Brady, who has had an extra week to study? Seems tough.
Ricky: Bucs. This probably is my “don’t overthink it” game of the week. Tampa Bay is the best team in the NFL, right?
(-11) Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. Something’s up here. This line opened at 13, and despite more than 94% of the tickets and 70% on the money coming in on Buffalo (at DK at least), the line continues to fall. Maybe I’ve missed the boat and it’s too late, but I’ll take a big gulp and grab the points with the Jets.
Ricky: Bills. Buffalo’s defense remains a top-tier unit, ranking first in total DVOA, while New York’s defense mostly has been a dumpster fire, ranking dead-last in total DVOA. The Bills messed around a couple of weeks ago and still beat the Dolphins by 15. We could see a similar showing Sunday as Buffalo bounces back from its Week 9 loss to Jacksonville. The Jets are 2-6 ATS this season, with an average point differential of -13.4.
Jacksonville Jaguars at (-10) Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts. Last week was certainly a feather in the Jaguars’ cap, but Indy might actually present greater challenges than Buffalo because the Colts can run the ball. That balance will make it far more difficult for the Jaguars — who still scored just nine points last week, mind you — keep pace.
Ricky: Colts. No way the Jags can be competitive in back-to-back weeks, right? Hate laying this many points with the Colts, even against terrible competition, because they’re always a Carson Wentz turnover away from the opponent sneaking in the back door. But it sure beats the alternative of holding your nose and hoping Jacksonville doesn’t completely unravel.
New Orleans Saints at (-2.5) Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans. New Orleans showed some cracks last week against Atlanta in a game the Saints should have lost by a lot more than two points. The Saints’ defense is strong against the run, but Tennessee wasn’t going to be as effective without Derrick Henry, anyway. They do, however, have an obvious advantage at quarterback, and that’s before considering the Saints might also be without Alvin Kamara.
Ricky: Saints. The Titans’ offense left much to be desired in their first game since Henry’s injury, totaling just 194 yards, including only five runs of five-plus yards (tied for their lowest such mark since the start of 2019). The Rams basically gave away that game, with two costly turnovers, and the Saints enter Sunday with the third-fewest giveaways in the NFL.
Atlanta Falcons at (-8) Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. The Broncos were able to run all over the Cowboys last week. Atlanta doesn’t feel like it has the same capability. The bigger problem for the Falcons, though, is they don’t have a defense suited to slow down all the playmakers Dallas has.
Ricky: Cowboys. Each of Atlanta’s last six games has been decided by one possession, but the Falcons haven’t exactly faced top-notch competition, with the exception of last week’s final-second win over the Saints. This is a nice bounce-back spot for the Cowboys. Shouldn’t Dan Quinn know as well as anyone the recipe for slowing Atlanta’s offense?
Detroit Lions at (-8) Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. Detroit isn’t as good as Chicago, right? Yet, the line is pretty similar to last week’s Steelers-Bears game (-7). Granted, Chicago covered, but that was in large part because of what Justin Fields was able to do in the second half, and I don’t think Jared Goff can pull off something similar.
Ricky: Lions. Not gonna sit here and act like the Lions don’t completely stink. But also not gonna sit here and say I’m convinced the Steelers’ offense has found its stride. Taking the points and hoping for the best. Detroit is coming off its bye, whereas Pittsburgh just played an emotionally draining game on Monday night.
Minnesota Vikings at (-3) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. Like Minnesota to win outright here, especially given the issues the Chargers have on defense right now. They can’t really stop the run, and the secondary is all banged up.
Ricky: Vikings. Minnesota is fourth in pressure percentage, second in hurry percentage and first in sack percentage, which could shake up Justin Herbert, who was awesome last week against Philadelphia but looked overmatched in Los Angeles’ two games prior against New England and Baltimore. The Chargers’ run defense also remains a problem with Dalvin Cook coming to town.
Carolina Panthers at (-10.5) Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals. Got a good tidbit here from Odds Shark: Five of the Cardinals’ last six wins have been by at least 12 points. Also dug into the DVOA numbers, and the only greater discrepancy this week is Bills-Jets. Most importantly, I’m sick of losing by taking the Panthers.
Ricky: Panthers. There’s still a chance neither Kyler Murray nor DeAndre Hopkins plays this week. Chase Edmonds also suffered an injury last week that’ll keep him sidelined. So while Carolina’s offense inspires little confidence, and Colt McCoy proved more than serviceable in leading Arizona to a Week 9 win over San Francisco, I’m inclined to take the points. Christian McCaffrey offers breakout potential for the Panthers in his second game back from a hamstring injury.
Philadelphia Eagles at (-3) Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Eagles. Two more teams that are impossible to figure out. Just gonna take the points and hope Denver gets tripped up looking ahead to its bye week.
Ricky: Eagles. Philadelphia has made strides offensively, largely because of an apparent philosophical shift in which the Eagles are leaning more heavily on their rushing attack. Denver’s defense, meanwhile, ranks 23rd in rush DVOA. There’s a path to an outright upset here.
Seattle Seahawks at (-3.5) Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Packers. This is an assumption Aaron Rodgers plays, of course. He might be a little winded after a COVID diagnosis and a week away from work, but are we sure Russell Wilson will look 100% himself? That finger injury could linger. If Rodgers is anywhere close to his normal self, he and the Green Bay offense could really expose a subpar Seattle defense.
Ricky: Seahawks. Banking on Seattle’s offense clicking with Wilson back in the mix. Green Bay’s defense has been strong, but the combination of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will test the Packers’ secondary depth. Consider the ‘Hawks to be live ‘dogs at Lambeau Field.
(-2.5) Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Raiders. Getting points at home in a divisional matchup is always attractive. Furthermore, the Raiders scored 40 and 31 points in their two meetings with KC last year. The Chiefs’ defense is even worse this season. Not to mention the skepticism around whether Kansas City could match 30 or 40 points right now.
Ricky: Raiders. The Chiefs’ defense has been awful at stopping the run, ranking 29th in rush DVOA. KC also has allowed more receiving yards to tight ends than any team in the NFL this season, which could translate to a big performance for Darren Waller.
MONDAY, NOV. 15
(-3.5) Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. Did Tennessee expose the Rams last week? Probably not. But the Titans did get after Matthew Stafford for the first time all season, and the Niners have the ability to do something similar, especially with Stafford hobbled.
Ricky: Rams. The 49ers have lost five of their last six games, with four of those defeats being by at least seven points. They have fared well against Sean McVay’s Rams in the past, but this seems like a good opportunity for Los Angeles to reassert itself in primetime after last week’s loss. San Francisco has covered only once in its last 10 home games.
