NFL Week 11 Line Movement Report


November 19, 2021

One of the most exciting aspects of betting on sports is that the lines are constantly changing. Several factors can cause the line to move, but betting activity, injuries and weather are some of the most common.

Luckily, we can track these line movements on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Let’s dive into some of the most significant moves from the NFL for Week 11.

Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns

Browns -10 to -12.5

The Lions managed not to lose their first game of the season last week, earning a sloppy draw vs. the Steelers instead. Meanwhile, the Browns were absolutely walloped by the Patriots, who scored 45 unanswered points en route to a 45-7 victory.

However, the Browns are in a prime spot to get right vs. the Lions. The Lions were lucky enough to be facing the Steelers’ backup quarterback last week, but they will probably have to start a backup of their own vs. the Browns. Jared Goff is currently listed as doubtful, so Tim Boyle is expected to start at quarterback. That’s caused this line to move by nearly three points.

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles -1.5 to -2.5

The Eagles put together one of their best games of the season last week vs. the Broncos, pulling out a 30-13 road victory. They dominated on the ground, with Jalen Hurts, Jordan Howard, and Boston Scott combining for more than 200 rushing yards, while DeVonta Smith recorded two receiving touchdowns.

The Saints gave a valiant effort vs. Titans last week, but they ultimately came up just short. They were playing without Alvin Kamara in that contest, and he will be out once again vs. the Eagles. There has been some sharp activity on the Eagles this week, which has pushed this line close to a field goal.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Packers -2.5 to -1

The Packers are also dealing with an injury to their star running back. Aaron Jones is expected to miss around two weeks with a “mild” MCL sprain, which means A.J. Dillon will handle most of the carries. However, Dillon has averaged 4.6 yards per attempt as a professional, so that’s not a huge downgrade.

The more significant reason for the line move is that the sharps are seeing some value with the Vikings. The Vikings grade out as the better team per Football Outsiders DVOA, so the sharps are unsurprisingly grabbing them as home dogs. They’ve received just 31% of the spread bets, but those bets have accounted for 46% of the dollars. That’s caused this line to shift a bit in the Vikings’ favor.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Cardinals -2.5 to -1.5

This line move has more to do with the Cardinals’ uncertainty at quarterback than anything else. They’ve played without Kyler Murray in their past two games, and they were crushed last week by the Panthers with Murray out of the lineup. Murray is considered a game-time decision vs. the Seahawks, but I would not be shocked if he sat again. The Cardinals are on bye next week, so they could use the extra time to get their star quarterback back to 100%.

It’s possible that the Cardinals could also be without backup Colt McCoy. He’s also listed as questionable, which would leave Chris Streveler to start vs. the Seahawks. This line has already moved a full point given the threat of Murray’s absence, but it would plummet if the news becomes official.

San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Total 46.5 to 45.0

The total on this game has dropped a bit after the 49ers’ dominant showing vs. the Rams. Not only did they play great defensively, but they also ran the ball at will on offense. Moving the ball on the ground results in long, sustained drives, which tends to lead to lower-scoring games.

The Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the league, so the 49ers should be able to duplicate their results this week.

Thumbnail photo via USA TODAY Sports Images

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