NFL Week 11 Opening Odds Analysis

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November 16, 2021

Understanding line movement and using it to your advantage so you can get on the right side of the closing number is a vital aspect of sports betting. We’re going to take a deep dive into a few lines that have already adjusted, whether it be news or early sharp money. Let’s get into some Week 11 action and where we may see things end up on Sunday afternoon.

New England Patriots Vs. Atlanta Falcons, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Patriots -275 | Falcons -225

Spread: Patriots -6.5 (-112) | Falcons +6.5 (-108)

Total: 47 Over -110 | Under -110

Odds to Win Super Bowl LVI: Patriots +2700 | Falcons +28000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

New England Patriots Vs. Atlanta Falcons Opening Line Analysis

This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons has already seen plenty of line movement, with both teams having very different Week 10 performances. Between the Patriots throttling the Cleveland Browns and the Falcons suffering a big blowout to the Dallas Cowboys, this line has steamed its way from an opener of -5.5 on Sunday night to -6.5 on the FanDuel Sportsbook with a few books now showing a -7. With the slight juice being on the Patriots side of things at -6.5, it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise for this number to reach -7 and possibly beyond by the time we reach kickoff on Thursday. If you’re looking to back New England, the best of it may be gone, but you can still grab them, laying less than a touchdown for the time being. If Atlanta is your side of choice, waiting this one out feels like your best option.

Dallas Cowboys Vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Cowboys +114 | Chiefs -134

Spread: Cowboys +2.5 (-112) | Chiefs -2.5 (-108)

Total: 55.5 Over -110 | Under -110

Odds to Win Super Bowl LVI: Cowboys +1000 | Chiefs +1000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Dallas Cowboys Vs. Kansas City Chiefs Opening Line Analysis

Although this spread hasn’t really budged from its opening of -2.5 on Sunday night, the total for this matchup has ballooned an unprecedented amount for a game being played so late into the season. A move from an opener before Week 11 of 52.5 to its current 55.5 is something you typically see in the early weeks of the season when teams are still being figured out, but that may show where things stand with these elite offenses and poor defenses. The Cowboys and Chiefs rank first and tenth in yards per play while ranking a lowly 26th and 31st in yards per play allowed this season. If that’s not a recipe for the over, I don’t know what is. Throw in both teams coming off massive blowout wins and a quarterback who looks like he is returning to his old ways in Patrick Mahomes, and you can see why this number has inflated by a field goal in just 48 hours. The side seems pretty stable where it is, but the value on the over may be gone. This total could be a stay-away at this point unless you’re looking towards an under.

Arizona Cardinals Vs. Seattle Seahawks, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Cardinals -142 | Seahawks +120

Spread: Cardinals -2.5 (-118) | Seahawks +2.5 (-104)

Total: 50 Over -108 | Under -112

Odds to Win Super Bowl LVI: Cardinals +950 | Seahawks +12000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Arizona Cardinals Vs. Seattle Seahawks Opening Line Analysis

This line is purely going to be shaped by the injury news out of Arizona as quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins have both been absent from practice and games each of the last two weeks, including their most recent 34-10 loss to the Carolina Panthers. The early number seems like it anticipates both of their returns, but there is no impact like the real news. Keep an eye on their statuses at practice throughout the week starting on Wednesday, and if we see them getting some reps with positive coach talk, this number won’t stay below a field goal. Wait for a bit of affirmation that both Pro Bowlers will be a go on Sunday and if that comes, rush to get your money down on this number before it pushes past that key number of three. If you are looking to back the home dog, the injury news may throw you an extra point or two, so it’s best to wait this one out until statuses become clear.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Thumbnail photo via USA TODAY Sports Images

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