One of the most exciting aspects of betting on sports is that the lines are constantly changing. Several factors can cause the line to move, but betting activity, injuries and weather are some of the most common.
Luckily, we can track these line movements on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into some of the most significant moves from the NFL for Week 12.
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
Patriots -5.5 to -7
The line movement on this game has been pretty ridiculous. The Patriots were listed as 4.5-point favorites on the advance spread, but that changed following last week’s results. The Patriots added another win to their winning streak – which is up to five games – while the Titans suffered an embarrassing loss vs. the Texans.
That caused the line to open as Patriots -5.5 to start the week, and the betting action has continued to push the line in their favor. The majority of the bets and dollars have landed on the Patriots, so the public doesn’t seem to care about the lack of “line value.â€
Additionally, the Titans are extremely banged up, missing Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones on offense and Bud Dupree on defense. That’s another factor that could’ve pushed the line in the Patriots’ favor.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals -4.5 to -3.5
The Steelers are coming off one of the most exciting games of the year last week vs. the Chargers. They ended up taking a 37-34 against the Chargers with approximately 3.5 minutes left, but the Chargers responded with a late touchdown to secure a 41-37 victory.
While the Steelers lost that contest, the fact that they were competitive was a major plus in the eyes of the public. The Steelers have received 62% of the spread bets and 72% of the spread dollars in this matchup, which has caused the line to drop from 4.5 to 3.5.
A one-point move isn’t all that significant, but this move came across the key number of four. That’s arguably the third most important number in NFL betting, trailing only three and seven.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers
Packers -1 to +2
The number on this game has moved by three full points, but it hasn’t crossed any key numbers. There are a few conflicting things to consider in this matchup. Aaron Rodgers is historically one of the best home quarterbacks in football. He’s posted a record of 62-33-3 against the spread in Green Bay during the regular season, including a mark of 4-1 as an underdog.
On the other hand, the Packers are dealing with a host of critical injuries. They’re missing multiple offensive linemen, cornerback Kevin King is doubtful, and running back Aaron Jones is questionable. Playing shorthanded is never good, especially against a talented team like the Rams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts
Total 51.5 to 53.0
The game between the Buccaneers and the Colts should be one of the higher scoring of the week. It opened with a 51.5-point total, but it’s moved to 53.0. The Buccaneers rank first in the league in Football Outsiders offensive DVOA, and Tom Brady has been as good as ever this season. He leads the league with 29 touchdown passes and an average of 317.7 passing yards per game.
The Colts are also capable of putting points on the scoreboard. They’re not quite as highly rated in terms of offensive DVOA, but they’ve scored at least 30 points in five of their past six games. Expect them to do their part in this matchup.
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins
Total 42.5 to 41.5
Defense could be the order of the day in this matchup. The Panthers have an excellent pass rush, ranking first in the league in adjusted sack rate. They should be able to do some damage against the Dolphins, who are 23rd in adjusted sack rate allowed.
The Dolphins’ defense has also started to put together some quality performances. They’ve won three straight games, and they’ve allowed an average of just 12 points per game.
