The leading contenders for the Norris Trophy remained essentially unchanged through the first month and a half of the season, although there has been some movement near the top of the futures board. Adam Fox usurped Cale Makar for the best odds to win the award and could be the first defenseman since Nicklas Lidstrom to win the award in consecutive years.
Top 10 Odds for Norris Trophy Award Winner
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- Adam Fox +400 (Previously +1000)
- Victor Hedman +550 (Previously +600)
- Cale Makar +550 (Previously +400)
- Roman Josi +900 (Previously +1500)
- Dougie Hamilton +1100 (Previously +1300)
- Miro Heiskanen +1500 (Previously Not in Top 10)
- Charlie McAvoy +1500 (Previously +1200)
- Aaron Ekblad +1500 (Previously +1500)
- Quinn Hughes +2200 (Previously +1900)
- Shea Theodore +2600 (Previously +2200)
Players Who Have Fallen Out of the Top 10 for the Norris Trophy Award
- Alex Pietrangelo +2900 (Previously +2200)
Adam Fox
Adam Fox picked up exactly where he left after last year’s successful campaign. The reigning Norris Trophy winner has 18 points in 18 games this season, with eight of those points on special teams. There is a bit of a disconnect forming between his production and output metrics, though. Fox ranks 99th in the league among defensemen with a 51.7% expected goals-for ratio, well below his actual output of 61.9%. That has resulted in an unsustainable 1.029 PDO. Fox could very well win the Norris Trophy again, but now is not the time to back him.
Victor Hedman
Through the analytics lens, Victor Hedman has been a much more valuable defenseman than Fox. Hedman is also a point-per-game player but has the 36th expected goals-for rating and a sustainable 1.002 PDO. The former Norris Trophy winner plays across all strengths, is a meaningful offensive contributor, and has metrics to back up his sustained output. Hedman’s odds have improved since the start of the season and will continue in that direction.
Cale Makar
Our pre-season pick to win the award got off to a rough start with the Colorado Avalanche. Makar recorded just six points through his first eight games of the season before landing on the injured reserve with an upper-body injury. Since returning, the former Brooks Bandit has recorded nine points in five games, including five goals scored. It’s crazy to think six points in eight games is bad, but Makar isn’t as bad as he showed us at the start of the season. Makar should begin his march back towards the top of the futures board.
Charlie McAvoy
Of all the players in the top 10, no player has a better expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five than Charlie McAvoy. The Boston Bruins defender has been effective at creating opportunities this season, out-chancing his opponents 119-103 in scoring chances and 37-31 in high-danger chances. McAvoy’s best rating is his shots-for ratio, as the Bruins out-shoot their opponents 165-108 with McAvoy on the ice, clearly illustrating his value on both ends of the rink. McAvoy hasn’t peaked yet, and his odds aren’t going to drop any lower. Now is the time to buy if you expect him to win the award.
Miro Heiskanen
Miro Heiskanen is the only defender to climb into the top 10 after starting the season on the outside looking in. The Finnish defender leads the Dallas Stars in points, powerplay assists, and ice-time to start the season. Heiskanen does it all, playing on both special team units, and has put up solid relative metrics despite starting 49.0% of his shifts in the defending zone. Heiskanen will likely continue his climb up the futures board, as his actual output remains below expected, and he has 0.979 PDO, implying he’s likely to progress over his coming games.
