North Carolina State vs. Wake Forest Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Betting Preview

It has to be nice to lose a game against a conference opponent and yet not suffer any consequences in the conference standings. Wait, what? That’s exactly what happened with Wake Forest (8-1) last week, who suffered their first defeat of the season in a wild shootout with North Carolina. Despite being against a conference foe, the game was classified as a “non-conference” matchup, so Wake’s 5-0 ACC record remains intact. 

This matchup is paramount in the division race. Wake sits in the driver’s seat in the ACC Atlantic division at 5-0, but NC State is close behind at 4-1.

NC State has been a tough out all year. They sit at 7-2 overall and are 6-3 ATS. Quarterback Devin Leary has been a revelation, throwing 25 touchdown passes to go along with only three interceptions. One of those interceptions occurred on a hail mary-type long ball last week, so it shouldn’t be counted against him. Leary gives this Wolfpack offense a downfield passing threat that makes it hard for defenses to focus on the run. They’re a balanced unit but are averaging 278.1 passing yards per game — that’s where their bread is buttered.

Leary should find success against a Wake defense allowing 439 total yards per game. The Demon Deacons have allowed over 50 points in two of their past three games (58 to UNC, 56 to Army) and seem content getting into a shootout. NC State is allowing only 4.9 yards per play defensively, so they’ll offer more resistance. The Wolfpack have a solid defensive front allowing only 3.3 yards per play, which could slow down this Wake play-action offense averaging 40 rushing attempts per game.

NC State has a shot at winning this game outright and appears to be the more well-rounded team. As for the total, the over is the only way to look at Wake games right now. The rush defense can’t stop anyone, and the offense is piling up points.

Pick: NC State +2.5 and Over 66.5