Brooklyn Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model
The Sportsgrid Betting Model is leaning towards Brooklyn on the Moneyline, the Over, and a little bit towards the Nets covering the spread. With a 69.15 percent likelihood of winning, the model gives the Nets a three-star rating for value on a straight-up win over the Mavericks. With a fair Moneyline of -224, there’s quite a discrepancy from the actual Moneyline of -172. The expected margin of victory has only a 1.9 point difference, so it’s not as attractive a wager.
There’s a lot to consider in this one because the Mavericks are pretty beat up. Luka Doncic missed Saturday’s loss against Memphis with an ankle injury and has been listed as questionable tonight against Brooklyn. Doncic is the Mavs’ leading scorer, averaging 25.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game. Additionally, the Mavericks are 0-4 this season without Doncic.
They’ve also been without the teams’ second-best scorer, Kristaps Porzingis, because of a knee contusion. However, Porzingis said he expects to suit up for Tuesday’s game. Porzingis averages 19.7 points per game, eight rebounds, and 1.7 blocks this season.
Tim Hardaway Jr. led Dallas against the Grizzlies in their absence with 29 points. Unfortunately, Hardaway is also questionable for the Mavs with a knee contusion.
Meanwhile, the Nets’ Kevin Durant leads the NBA in scoring, averaging 28.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. Brooklyn’s second-best scorer, James Harden, has been a little inconsistent this season. He’s shooting just 40.3 percent, his lowest since his rookie season, and his 20.5 points per game is the lowest since the 2011-12 season. The Nets average 109.5 points per game, while the Mavs put up 104.5. Despite the model giving the over of 219 a four-star rating, it may be tough to hit with Dallas as banged up as they are, but it still expects a total in this game over 225. That being said, Brooklyn looks to be a safe bet in this matchup.
You can put all of this information to work by heading to FanDuel Sportsbook.
