Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game Preview: Underdog Cavs a Solid Value
Milwaukee (15-9) hosts Cleveland (13-11) tonight in a game that has both teams playing their best basketball so far this season.
After struggling to a 6-8 start out of the gate, the Bucks come into this contest having won 9 of their past 10, including a 124-102 extinguishing of the Miami Heat at home Saturday night.
The Cavaliers are on the road again after dropping a tough 109-108 decision to the Utah Jazz at home yesterday – their first loss after reeling off four straight wins.
Despite the Bucks’ impressive run of late, there is a lot to like about the Cavs tonight. They own an NBA-best 9-2-1 road record against the spread with an average margin of 12.3 points versus the number. After a loss, J.B. Bickerstaff’s club is 7-2-1 ATS (2-1-1 on the second night of a back-to-back). This will be the Cavs’ third game in four nights.
Cleveland is ranked second in the NBA in team defense, allowing just 102.0 PPG. The Cavs rank 24th offensively, but the attack has been bolstered with standout rookie Evan Mobley returning to the lineup after missing a four-game stretch in November due to an elbow injury.
On the other hand, the Bucks are only 4-7 as home favorites against the spread. Milwaukee can also credit a relatively soft stretch in their schedule for their improved performance. Four wins have come against teams currently last in their respective division – Detroit, Oklahoma City, and two over the lowly Orlando Magic. Overall, the Bucks rank eighth in the NBA in offense, scoring 110.5 PPG and sit 17th defensively, allowing 106.4 PPG.
The Bucks have listed Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf), Grayson Allen (illness), and George Hill (knee) as questionable tonight, so lineup monitoring closer to game time takes on added importance.
As it currently stands, our model expects the Cavaliers’ outstanding road performance to continue and, getting 6.5 points is much more than the model’s 1.6-point expected margin. It loves them as a five-star play against the spread and on an outright basis, as evidenced by the model giving Cleveland a +125 fair moneyline. Tonight’s total of 213.5 looks less appealing, but our model leans towards the over and has a projected total of 218.5.
