NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday, December 8: Target This Assists Prop

We successfully faded the wise guys on Tuesday night as they were betting the Mavericks blindly as if they already knew the final score. While it was only a half-unit win for us, it’s still a win nonetheless, giving us our second win in many nights. We’re now 28-17 on the season for a return of 10.02 units.

Although there’s not a ton I like in today’s slate, my model does project some value on a player prop for Wednesday night. Let’s head to Queen City, where the Hornets will host the Philadelphia 76ers.

Last season, the Charlotte Hornets finished tenth in the Eastern Conference with a .458 winning percentage. They’re seventh in the conference with a .538 winning percentage this season. What’s impressive about the Hornets is that they’ve climbed up 17 spots in offensive efficiency since last season, as the team is now fourth in that category. That’s pretty good for a squad with the fifth-youngest team in the league.

However, it’s fair to wonder if these players are merely profiting from the team’s style of play in terms of padding their stats or whether this is a cohesive group that’s looking to make a deep run into the playoffs.

The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, as I think some players are already preparing for their next contract, and Miles Bridges has to be near the top of the list.

After turning down a contract extension from Charlotte, Miles Bridges is off to a torrid start and may be playing his way into a more lucrative deal ???https://t.co/XN3kS94ZhY

— The Undefeated (@TheUndefeated) November 8, 2021

Bridges already turned down a four-year $60 million extension from the Hornets, which means he’ll be a restricted free agent at the end of the season. The former Michigan State product likely has an eye on an even better deal as he’s averaging 20.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. That’s quite an improvement for a player who averaged 12.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 2.2 assists last season.

The good news for us as bettors is that we can take advantage of Bridges’ pursuit of an improved deal along with his aggression for scoring. While the four-year veteran is very much a team player, I suspect that he’s well aware he was a bit passive his last time out as the Hornets lost at home to the 76ers, 127-124. Bridges finished with just 16 points but did dish out six assists. Since we all know that NBA players are notorious for pouring over the stat sheet after their games, I doubt that Bridges will be too charitable in tonight’s game.

This season, there’ve been six instances when he registered at least six assists and only once recorded more than four assists in the next round. With his assists prop set at 4.5, I think the under still has some value at -140 odds.

Pick: Miles Bridges u 4.5 assist -140 (risking a 1/2 unit)