NFL Odds: Betting Market Reacts To Patriots’ Back-To-Back Losses
If you still believe in the Patriots, there might be value
The AFC playoff race is ever-involving and might remain in flux until the final day of the 2021 NFL season.
Prior to a Monday night matchup featuring the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints -- a game that has potentially heavy AFC playoff implications with the Fins -- there are still 13 teams technically still in the running for the six remaining playoff spots after Kansas City clinched another AFC West title.
If the Dolphins can beat the Saints -- who have rookie quarterback Ian Book making his first career NFL start -- there would be eight teams with records of 8-7 or 9-6 entering the penultimate week of the season.
The biggest development in he NFL on Sunday, though, was Buffalo's impressive win over the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. The road win very much puts the Bills in a position to win a second straight AFC East title. DraftKings Sportsbook has made Buffalo the heavy favorite to secure the crown after weeks of New England at the top.
Buffalo -700
New England +550
Miami +10000
When it comes to winning the conference, the Chiefs have emerged as a clear favorite, checking in at +175 at DraftKings. Unsurprisingly, Buffalo is No. 2, and the Indianapolis Colts -- winners of two straight against the Patriots and Cardinals -- have jumped New England on the odds board.
Kansas City +175
Buffalo +350
Indianapolis +650
New England +700
Tennessee +850
Cincinnati +1400
It's an imperfect science to compare odds at different sportsbooks from different weeks, but it was just two weeks ago that FanDuel Sportsbook had the Chiefs as +260 favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl yet again. The Patriots were +340, while Buffalo was 6-1. The biggest riser would be the Cincinnati Bengals, who were 21-1 at FanDuel and are now 14-1 at DraftKings after obliterating Baltimore on Sunday.
As for Super Bowl LVI, all the talk about the Chiefs being dead sure looks like a short-sighted overreaction in hindsight. KC is now a 4-1 favorite to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings, followed by the Packers and Buccaneers, two clubs who have emerged as the NFC's best.
Kansas City +400
Green Bay +450
Tampa Bay +750
Buffalo +850
LA Rams +850
Dallas +1000
Indianapolis +1400
New England +1400
Tennessee +2000
Arizona +2200
Cincinnati +2800
It's the first time in a while there might actually be some value on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. It was just three weeks ago New England was near or even at the top of the favorites board. The Westgate in Las Vegas even made the Patriots co-favorites, though that might have been risk management more than anything else.
Regardless, investing in New England at 5-1 to win it all seems even more foolish in hindsight, but a 14-1 ticket doesn't seem as bad. That might be especially true with the way things have unfolded the Patriots, as Bill Belichick's team has been uncharacteristically beatable at home this season while going 6-1 on the road.
Ultimately, they might be a year or two early, but it wouldn't be completely shocking to see a 2001-esque run in the playoffs.
