NFL Week 13 “Sharps vs. Squares” Report

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Sharps vs. squares. It’s the biggest battle in the sports betting world, akin to the Hatfields and McCoys. The sharps are the professional bettors, while the squares are the Average Joes of the betting world. These two sides often don’t see eye-to-eye on the same game, creating an exciting dynamic in the betting market.

One of the easiest ways to track these “sharps vs. squares” matchups is by looking at the betting tickets vs. the betting dollars on each side of a given game. The sharps tend to place significantly larger bets, while the squares account for more betting tickets. When those numbers don’t align, there’s a good chance they disagree.

Let’s dive into some of the biggest “sharps vs. squares” showdowns in Week 13.

All lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) @ Detroit Lions – 46.5 total

I’m not sure if this qualifies as a genuine “sharps vs. squares” spot, but the sharps appear to have more interest in the Vikings than the general public. The Vikings have received 66% of the spread bets in this matchup, but they’ve accounted for a whopping 92% of the dollars. That’s a massive discrepancy, and we’ve already tracked three separate steams moves on Vikings -7.0.

That’s forced this line to 7.5, and it will be interesting to see how the sharps approach them at that number. The Vikings are a team they’ve considered undervalued all year, and they’re better than their record indicates. The Lions are also playing without D’Andre Swift, who is their clear top playmaker on offense.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3) – 49.5 total

The Bengals are another team getting an overwhelming majority of the betting dollars. The tickets have been split basically down the middle – the Bengals have received 59% – but they’ve received 87% of the dollars.

The line on this game suggests that these two teams are essentially equal on a neutral field, but most of the advanced metrics favor the Bengals. Most notably, the Bengals have outscored their opponents by +83 points, while the Chargers have been outscored by -20. That gives them a significant edge in Pythagorean Wins.

Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) – 49.5 total

This is the most traditional sharps vs. squares showdown of the week. The public is infatuated with the Raiders, who can beat anyone on any given week. However, they are incredibly inconsistent. They managed to secure an upset road victory over the Cowboys last week on Thursday Night Football, but they lost their previous three games by an average of more than 17 points.

Meanwhile, the Football Team enters this game on a three-game winning streak. That includes an impressive 10-point win over the Buccaneers, who are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl on FanDuel Sportsbook. The sharps are buying the Football Team in this spot, and they’ve received 83% of the spread dollars. That’s caused this line to dip from Raiders -2.5 to Raiders -1.5, and there could be more movement on the way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) @ Atlanta Falcons – 50.5 total

The showdown in this matchup takes place over the total. The public looks at these two teams and sees offense. The Buccaneers’ offense has been fantastic this season, leading the league with an average of 31.5 points per game. Unsurprisingly, 60% of the bets have sided with the over in this contest.

However, the sharps are hammering the under. The Bucs’ offense has been nearly as potent when playing away from home this season, averaging approximately -12.5 fewer points per game on the road. Meanwhile, the Falcons’ offense has taken a clear step back recently. They rank 27th in points and yards per game, and they’ve scored 24 total points over the past three weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ New York Jets – 45.0 total

The sharp action on this game is on the over. The public sees two offenses that don’t put points on the board consistently, but they’re overlooking the atrocity that is the Jets’ defense. They’ve allowed a league-worst 30.4 points per game, and six of their last eight games have gone over 45.0.

The sharps see the value in fading the Jets’ defense, and they’ve pushed a whopping 99% of the dollars towards the over.

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