NFL Week 17 Line Movement Report: Cowboys' Spread Surging
We’re in the fourth quarter of the NFL season, and there is still so much up for grabs. Teams continue to battle for a playoff spot with six NFC teams jostling for the final two wild card positions, and all but three AFC teams are still sitting with playoff aspirations. At least there is more roster certainty this week, as teams have contained the spread of the COVID-19 virus, and there are fewer unknowns when it comes to injuries. That has resulted in a more stable betting week, with only a few games moving more than a couple of points off opening.
As usual, we’re running through some of the more significant line moves from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks -9 to -7
This season has not gone to plan for the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks dropped five of their first seven decisions, with four coming by less than a touchdown. Russell Wilson suffered a significant finger injury that prevented the Seahawks from getting their season back on track, and the last two weeks of the season are nothing more than a formality at this point.
Detroit has played with a chip on their shoulder, covering four of their past five outings. Seattle is coming off a loss to another NFC North opponent, and health concerns surround their offense. The betting market has lost faith in the Seahawks, as the spread has moved two full points off the opening, with further correction likely coming.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys -3.5 to -6
No teams’ perceived value has fallen more than the Arizona Cardinals over the past couple of weeks, and that’s evident again in this week’s betting line. The Dallas Cowboys opened as -3.5 home chalk, with the line quickly getting bought up to -6.
The Cardinals have lost three straight games, all of which as favorites, watching their stock plummet in the futures market along with their position in the NFC standings. The Cowboys may have locked up the NFC East, but they won’t be mailing it in. Dak Prescott and company have an outside shot at the #1 seed in the NFC, securing the coveted first-round bye if they can overcome the Green Bay Packers. The betting market has faith that the Cowboys keep the race close.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
Rams -2.5 to -4.5
Quarterback injuries have hurt the Baltimore Ravens playoff chances, as Baltimore has dropped four straight games, falling out of the AFC North lead. They will have to pick up the pieces in a hurry, as two games remain for the Ravens to get their season back on track and avoid missing out on the postseason.
Early action has shifted the Week 17 line in favor of the visiting Los Angeles Rams, as LA has won four straight and moved into the lead in the NFC West Division. However, reports throughout the week have suggested that Lamar Jackson could be back in the fold for Sunday’s pivotal contest. If nothing else, Tyler Huntley should be available for the Ravens. This line isn’t done moving, but action could start swinging this line back towards the home team as we approach kick-off.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals +4 to +5.5
Total 48 to 51
The Cincinnati Bengals made an unsuspecting move to the top of the AFC North Division after last week’s 41-21 shellacking of the Ravens. That convincing victory wasn’t enough to convince bettors that the Bengals can hang with the best, as the betting line has shifted away from them ahead of their upcoming contest against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Let’s give credit where credit is due. The Chiefs came out flat this season, with opponents effectively game-planning to stop KC’s vaunted attack. Andy Reid called an audible mid-season, shifting the focus to defense, and the Chiefs have moved back to the top of the AFC standings, controlling their playoff destiny with two weeks to go.
Action in the betting market supports that defense will fall by the wayside in Sunday’s contest, with the total shifting up three points off the opening. That could also explain the move towards the Chiefs, as it’s unlikely that Joe Burrow can help the Bengals keep pace offensively with Patrick Mahomes.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts
Raiders +8.5 to +7
One matchup that could wreak havoc on the AFC landscape is the Las Vegas Raiders versus Indianapolis Colts. A Raiders victory would move both teams to 9-7, shifting the balance of conference wins and the entire AFC playoff picture.
The Colts have been outgained in two straight games, a metric that most sharp bettors won’t overlook ahead of their upcoming contest. Whereas the Raiders have won two straight, outgaining their opponents in three of four. Las Vegas’s defense has been staunch against the run over their recent sample, which could be part of the reason this line has shifted in their direction.
After opening as +8.5 favorites, Las Vegas remains +7 underdogs against the Colts, but action could continue to spill in the Raiders’ favor. The current betting price is -114 that the Raiders keep things within a touchdown on Sunday.
All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
