3 NFL Long-shot Bets for Championship Weekend: Ride Deebo and the 49ers

One great thing about Championship Weekend in the NFL, other than the high-grade football to watch, is the bevy of offerings available to bet. With so many eyes on these games, the market really opens up and provides some in-depth offerings not often seen during the regular season. We’ve combed through these offerings and have selected three longshot bets with high plus odds that we think have a higher probability of hitting than the line would indicate.

For this article, we use the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots for value.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Tyreek Hill to record 125+ receiving yards (+400)

How about we start our longshot column with one half of the master duo of the long ball alongside his quarterback Patrick Mahomes — Tyreek Hill. A dangerous speedster liable to break off a long catch and run or beat the defense over the top, Hill is primed to explode against an exploitable Bengals secondary. Sure, this Cincy defense has performed well to start the postseason, but both outings have been against teams reluctant to throw the football. That certainly won’t be the case with the Chiefs. One weakness of this Bengals defense is that they lack team speed on the back end, which could be a recipe for disaster against the speed demon Hill. 

Hill was limited to only 40 yards in the previous meeting between these two teams, but we think there’s reason to believe that number will improve this time. The Bengals haven’t faced many good passing attacks this season, but they’ve been exposed when they have. It’s still recent memory when Justin Herbert and the Chargers averaged 9.1 yards per pass attempt against Cincinnati. The Chiefs have gone to another level offensively in the postseason, and we expect that success to continue against a Cincinnati defense that has been playing well but is simply outmatched. 

San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (+310)

Our next selection is going to be the 49ers on an alternate spread. If backing the 49ers this weekend, you likely think they have an excellent chance of winning outright. The money line isn’t a bad bet (+148), but we’re looking for some truly plus odds for this longshot column and therefore opted to find the alternate spread. We believe there’s value in expecting the 49ers to win by a touchdown.

The 49ers have managed to upset both the Cowboys and the Rams despite quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo failing to throw a touchdown while tossing two interceptions. Kyle Shanahan is in his “flow-state” as a head coach, and the team has managed to get hot just at the right time. It’s not difficult to envision a game script where the 49ers walk away with this one. With the ground game wreaking havoc thanks to Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, and company, they’ll be a tough out. The defense has been truly special and should have little trouble limiting Cam Akers and this Rams rushing attack. That may put a lot on Matt Stafford’s shoulders, which could ultimately lead to an interception or two. Stafford led the NFL with 17 interceptions, and a turnover or two in the wrong spot could swing what otherwise looks like a close matchup on paper.

Sean McVay has done an excellent job this season, but we’ve seen his offenses fall flat on the biggest stage before. Shanahan has the upper leg as of now (7-3 against McVay in his career), and yet we’re getting juicy plus odds that he’s able to come out on top yet again.

Deebo Samuel to record 70+ rushing yards (+430)

Deebo Samuel has transformed into a hybrid RB/WR role that is devastating opposing defenses. His usage in the running game ramped up to end the season, seeing 5+ carries in each of the final eight games of the season. Shanahan has trusted Samuel with a more significant workload in the playoffs, as Deebo has seen 10 carries in each of the first two contests. We saw just two weeks ago what he could do if given double-digit carries, rushing for 72 yards and a score against the Cowboys in the Wild Card round. 

The Rams have a much-discussed defensive line, but you can run on this defense. In their two final games of the regular season, they allowed 165 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per attempt to the Ravens and 135 yards on 4.4 yards per attempt to this very team, the 49ers. In the initial matchup between these teams on November 15, San Francisco ran for 156 yards and a score. The 49ers have proven that they can run on this team. Deebo has emerged as one of the most potent weapons in the NFL and should be relied on heavily in this momentous matchup.

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.