Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Odds, Trends, and Picks for Super Wild Card Weekend on FanDuel Sportsbook

The Cardinals and Rams will meet for the third time this season. On Sunday, it’ll be with a trip to the divisional round of the playoffs on the line. Both teams come into this game with a top-six defense, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. However, we’ve seen plenty of scoring in the head-to-head meetings between these teams.

Arizona’s offense has often relied on the run game this season, which is evident by its No. 10 ranking in run play rate (44.05%). In its past three games, though, that number’s dropped to 38.94%.

It’s entirely normal for teams to attempt to strike a balance with how often they throw or run the ball. However, according to rbsdm.com, the numbers show that it’s more of a challenge to have a positive Expected Points Added (EPA) running the football than throwing it. For example, only five teams in the league have a positive rush EPA while 21 teams have a positive pass EPA.

Murray can provide a threat in the running game, and he’s likely to ask some questions of the Rams secondary when he’s in some of the Cardinals’ run-pass option packages. Remember, Los Angeles will have to decide whether to keep a spy on Murray or walk a safety down into the box.

The Rams are already depleted in the secondary after losing free safety Jordan Fuller to an ankle injury for the rest of the playoffs. Fuller is the Rams’ leading tackler and defensive signal-caller. Los Angeles’ other starting safety, Taylor Rapp, missed Thursday and Friday’s practices as he remains in concussion protocols.

While we’ve established that the Cardinals try to be somewhat balanced on offense, that’s not necessarily the case for the Rams. Los Angeles ranks 24th with a run play rate of 39.70%. That likely has something to do with the Rams’ performances in the first half vs. the second half. On average, LA has scored more points in the second half (14.2) than in the first (12.8). The Rams are 15th in EPA/play (0.031) during the first half compared to after halftime (.139 EPA/play).

For a team that’s ranked fifth overall in DVOA, the Rams often struggle to create separation on the scoreboard from opponents in the first half. Thus, they tend to compensate in the second half by taking a more aggressive approach.

According to Pro Football Reference, Los Angeles averages 9.1 net yards per pass attempt in the second half compared to 6.7 in the first. It’s that aggression and more of a willingness to take risks that catapults the Rams up to second in EPA per play in the second half. We often see that aggressiveness against the better offensive teams in the league.

Finally, another factor that could lead to a high-scoring game is turnovers. Lately, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has shown a penchant for throwing the football to the other team. He has had eight turnovers in his past four games and threw 17 interceptions on the season, including four that the opposition returned for a touchdown.

I want no part of these teams as a side when you factor in Stafford’s turnover issues or the Cardinals’ 1-8-1 against the spread (ATS) mark against the Rams in the previous ten meetings.

The total is 4-1 to the over in the past five meetings between these teams, and the lone game that went under featured two backup quarterbacks who started for both sides due to injuries. These matchups tend to produce more points because neither head coach is entirely committed to running the ball.

I can’t see both teams opting for a passive game plan. If one comes out aggressive, the other is likely to follow. This seems like a matchup destined for points, so I’d look to play this one over the total at 49.5 or better.