Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds, Trends, and Picks for NFL Week 17 on FanDuel Sportsbook

There’s no question that the Broncos’ offensive numbers are above average according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. However, with starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater still in concussion protocols, the Broncos will likely turn to Drew Lock for a second straight week. Last week, when Lock started against the Raiders, he completed 15 of his 22 pass attempts for 153 yards. The fact that he threw the ball only 22 times might suggest that the Broncos aren’t necessarily ready to hand him the keys to the offense. Denver lost 17-13 to Las Vegas despite having a 3:0 edge in turnover margin.

Defensively, Denver ranks fourth in red-zone touchdowns allowed (50%). That number’s even down to 37.5% over its past three games. As for Lock, the Chargers should be pretty familiar with him as a divisional opponent.

If we turn to the Chargers, their seven losses came against teams ranked in the top half of offensive run DVOA. And in those games, opponents averaged roughly 150 yards on the ground. With the NFL widely regarded as a copycat league, it’s normal to expect opposing teams to focus their efforts on running the ball against LA. I’d expect the Broncos to follow a similar game plan, but their offense could lack some imagination with Jerry Jeudy ruled out after landing on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Juedy will be joined by LB Bradley Chubb, who’s also ruled out.

With the Chargers coming off a shocking double-digit loss to the Lions, one might expect them to follow their poor performance with a solid defensive effort. The total is +51 units to the under for home teams coming off a double-digit loss. However, there are too many moving parts for this game, as I now think the Chargers are a better option.

Note that Los Angeles is 7-1-1 against the spread when it’s a favorite the following week, coming off a double-digit loss as favorite. As a result, the Chargers are a great teaser option if you pair them with the Steelers at +3.5.