Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model


On Sunday, the Detroit Pistons conclude their four-game Western Conference road trip against the Denver Nuggets. The Pistons offense runs hot and cold, but our modeling suggests they are in a favorable betting spot against the Nuggets tonight. Denver has struggled to contain their opponents recently, setting Detroit up to end their roadie on a high note.

Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Game Information

Pistons (11-34) vs. Nuggets (23-21)

Date: Sunday, January 23

Time: 8:00 P.m. ET

Ball Arena

TV Coverage: ALT, BSDET

Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Pistons +530|Nuggets -750

Spread: Pistons +11 (-106)|Nuggets -11 (-114)

Total: 217.5 Over (-108)|Under (-112)

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Pistons +50000|Nuggets +3200

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Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Pistons 30.25%|Nuggets 69.75%

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: Pistons – 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: Pistons – 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: Over – 3 Stars

Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets News and Notes

The Pistons have been on an impressive streak, covering the number in two straight and five of their past eight. What’s been even more impressive is that Detroit has collected wins in four of those contests. The Pistons scoring is up, averaging 105.1 points per game over that eight-game sample. They are in an excellent spot to continue that upward trend against the Nuggets, who are sliding over their recent outings.

Denver has dropped two of three games, failing to cover in all three. Defense is letting the Nuggets down, as they’ve allowed an average of 125.0 points per game, with all three opponents scoring 122 or more. The Nuggets haven’t had an answer for the three-ball, as teams are shooting 39.8% from beyond the arc over that three-game sample, with the Nuggets getting outscored in all three games. That’s an area the Pistons can take advantage of, as they are nailing 36.3% of threes over the past three games, above their season-long average of 31.7%.

This is the first night of a home-and-home series between these teams. Based on our projections, there’s a substantive edge in backing the Pistons on the first night. Detroit has a 39.25% chance of winning, which is well above the implied probability that comes with their +530 moneyline odds. Similarly, they’ve been effective at covering the number and keeping things close, which we project as another good betting spot. Both wagers are rated as 5-star plays. There’s a more modest advantage in playing the over in tonight’s contest, which we rate as a 3-star play.

All NBA game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
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