NBA Betting Preview: Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

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We’ve yet to taste defeat in the New Year as we cashed another ticket by playing the under in the rebounds+assists (12.5) prop for Derrick White. The victory moves us to 3-0-1 in 2022, which is precisely the start we need after a sluggish finish to 2021. We’ll try to keep the streak alive on Wednesday as I already have my sights on the best bet of the day.

Let’s head to Big D, where the Mavericks will host the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors-Mavericks game will be the first part of a double-header on ESPN. And one thing I know good and well is that players know when they’re playing in primetime. As a result, I’d expect the stars to be out in full force on Wednesday night. What’s interesting about this matchup is that both teams fit the profile of an under team as the total has gone under in 65.7% of Mavericks’ games and 64.7% for the Warriors.

Moreover, no other two teams in the league have had their games finish under the total more than the Warriors and Mavericks. And while this might look like a good spot for the under, given their profiles, I think this is the perfect time to go with a contrarian play. The Warriors have been doing a bit more scoring of late as the over has cashed in six of their past ten games. The total has also gone over in back-to-back games for the Warriors coming into this contest.

But it’s the head-to-head numbers that should draw your attention as the over is on a 7-0 run in this series and 10-2 run in their past 12 meetings. Lastly, the over is on an 8-1 run in the Mavericks past nine games against a team that’s above .500.

Dallas seems to raise or lower its standards depending on the opponent. As for the Warriors, I think they’re so good defensively that they’re able to suffocate the lesser teams. This matchup is all about the playing style of both teams. And when you sprinkle in the bright lights of primetime, I think there’s a good chance that viewers and fans will get their money’s worth.

This total’s been on the move since opening as low as 209.5. It reached as high as 215 before we got some buyback on the under. Although I’m disappointed I didn’t get the best number, I still think the over is the play in this spot. However, I’ll look to buy the total down to 212.5 to give myself a bit more insurance.

Pick: Over 212.5 (-128)

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

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