NFL Championship Round Best Player Prop Bets: Travis Kelce in a Smash Spot

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January 30

Player props are a terrific way to get into the NFL action, and Sunday’s Championship round slate is full of prime spots to capitalize on individual player performance. With teams looking to advance to the next round, a couple of players may exceed expectations.

Look below and check out a few props to target this week.

All NFL Betting Lines, Odds, and Prop Bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals

The Bet: Under 288.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The Cincinnati Bengals look to continue their run through the AFC en route to the Super Bowl, led by quarterback Joe Burrow. Burrow leads a ninth-ranked Bengals offense (per PFF) in a matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs in one of the more difficult venues in the NFL—Arrowhead Stadium. With a total currently at 54.5-points on FanDuel Sportsbook, expect a higher scoring affair. Facing a Chiefs defense ranked 24th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) may look appealing. However, the Bengals are among one of the slower-paced teams this season, running a play every 28.5 seconds (per RotoViz). As 7.5-point underdogs, expect Burrow to increase the Bengals’ slightly skewed 59%/41% pass-to-run play calling ratio in hopes of keeping the matchup competitive with the lightning-fast Chiefs’ offense.

This season, Burrow has reached the 289-passing yard mark in six games. However, we’re projecting him to throw for 272.60 yards, despite facing a weak Chiefs’ defense in what looks to be a more pass-heavy matchup.

 

Jerick McKinnon – Kansas City Chiefs

The Bet: Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon has taken advantage of this role in the Chiefs backfield during the playoffs, averaging 11 rushing attempts and 6.5 targets per game as a starter. McKinnon will likely split time with Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the backfield, with the second-year back responsible for 43% of the share of rushes in the Chiefs’ backfield. Sunday’s matchup with the Bengals should give McKinnon, and Edwards-Helaire problems, with Cincinnati, ranked 13th in rush DVOA. In a higher-scoring matchup, the Chiefs are favored by 7.5-points. They should give McKinnon plenty of opportunity in a clock-killing situation, especially toward the end of the game, if the Chiefs are ahead.

In the playoffs this year, McKinnon has rushed for more than 33 yards once. He projects for 52.89 rushing yards against the Bengals Sunday, trending him toward the over, despite facing one of the stouter rush defenses in the league.

 

Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs

The Bet: Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

One of the more dominant skill players in the league, Travis Kelce remains a primary weapon for Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He is an integral part of the Kansas City receiving corps. Kelce is responsible for 21% of the Chiefs’ target share, only behind wide receiver Tyreek Hill, averaging 8.4 targets per game and 12.2 yards per reception. The AFC Championship matchup between the Bengals looks ideal, with a weak spot in the Cincinnati defense being their ability in the passing game, ranking 24th in pass DVOA. Despite the large spread in favor of the Chiefs, Mahomes should use Kelce as part of their 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling ratio, giving the virtually matchup-proof end plenty of opportunities to exceed expectation.

This season, Kelce has reached the 77-receiving yard mark in five games, and we’re projecting him for 80.74 receiving yards, trending him toward the over, especially in facing a weak Bengals pass defense.

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