NFL Championship Weekend Line Movement Report: Bengals-Chiefs Total Has Grown


Three meaningful NFL games are all that is left of the 2021 season. Last week’s Divisional Round will be etched in our memories for a long time to come, but we’re not writing off more excitement over the final few weeks. Spreads and totals were on the move this week, as both games’ lines shifted off the opening.

As usual, we’re running through some of the more significant line moves from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs -6.5 to -7.5
Total 51 to 54.5

Early money has moved the favorite and the total up in the AFC Championship game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs. The total opened up at 51, getting bought up 3.5 points to 54.5, while the Chiefs have moved beyond the key number of seven before both were met with some resistance.

Presently, backing the Bengals at +7.5 comes at the cost of -118. Although the 54.5 total is priced at an even -110, we’re seeing sharp money start taking the under in the contest. After starting the year off on the wrong foot, the Chiefs offense is hitting its stride at the right time of year. KC has gone over in seven straight games, going above the total by an average of 11.4 points per game. It’s strength against strength, as the Bengals’ defense has been excellent to end the year, helping the team stay under in three straight and five of seven.

Both teams have an excellent track record of covering the spread to end the season. Cincinnati has covered in six straight and eight of ten, whereas the Chiefs are on a two-game run covering the number but are on the identical eight of ten stretch overall. It would almost be fitting that this game closes at +/- 7 so both teams can keep their ATS streaks intact.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

49ers +4 to +3.5
Total 47 to 45.5

There won’t be any hiding what to expect when the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers collide for the third time this season. LA dropped the opening two matchups, despite closing as favorites in both contests. The betting line has shifted away from them, as the market has taken a stance on the 49ers keeping things close in the NFC Championship.

The Niners have turned to their defense recently, which could be contributing to the betting market’s confidence in them on Sunday. San Francisco held two of the best offenses in check through the first two weeks of the postseason, limiting the Dallas Cowboys to 17 points on 307 yards, before stymying the Green Bay Packers to the tune of 10 points on 263 yards.

Other than a classic Tom Brady second half, the Rams defense has been equally impressive through two playoff games. LA held the Arizona Cardinals to 183 yards on Wild Card weekend and the Bucs to 130 first half yards in the Divisional Round.

These teams’ metrics support that we’re looking at another defensive battle, and that’s reflected in the line movement for this NFC West matchup. Bettors are lining up to take the points and the under in what is projecting to be another close game.

All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid

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