NFL Divisional Round Picks: Bet Tom Brady, Buccaneers As Short Favorite

Tampa Bay is a 2.5-point home favorite


Last weekend’s NFL picks were not great. Joe Burrow ruined my Saturday and the Dallas Cowboys did what the Dallas Cowboys have done for 25 years in the playoffs.

Now it’s onto the divisional round where there are two favorites that I absolutely love.

If you’re new around these parts, this is not a place where you’ll find a million betting picks. I isolate the ones I really, really like and roll with those. Nothing more, nothing less. Don’t expect to see any five-team parlays or “locks” on primetime games, either.

Let’s go to work.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, O/U 47.5)
Packers -5.5

I hate how much I love the Packers in this spot. Green Bay comes off the much-deserved first-round bye with the healthiest roster possible. Left tackle David Bakhtiari, linebacker Za’Darius Smith and top cornerback Jaire Alexander all are suiting up together for the first time this season. That’s a huge boost for the Cheeseheads, who get to tee off on hobbled San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The former Patriot has a banged up thumb, elbow and shoulder on his throwing arm and a jarring hit in single-digit temperatures will only make things worse. We also have no idea how healthy or effective Niners defenders Nick Bosa or Fred Warner will be. This number was as low as Packers -4 and as high as -6.5, so it’s been quite the rollercoaster. I’m against the wise guys and like Aaron Rodgers to care of business at Lambeau. Give me Green Bay by a touchdown or more.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, O/U 48)
Buccaneers -145
Rob Gronkowski TD +110

You rarely get a chance to bet on Tom Brady at this price. Over his 20-year career as an NFL starter, Brady has been a three-point favorite or less only four times in the playoffs. His teams are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, which definitely will help you pay the rent. Respected players were too willing to bet against Tampa Bay last week and the Bucs annihilated the Philadelphia Eagles. The Rams are a much tougher test, but the loss of left tackle Andrew Whitworth is a huge deal while Tampa’s offensive line is getting healthier by the minute. And I just can’t put my hard-earned money on Matthew Stafford against the most successful quarterback of all time. I don’t love laying extra juice, but it’s worth it to me at this stage of the season. All Tampa Bay has to do is win the game.

I also love Gronkowski to catch a touchdown pass. He’s hauled in 15 scoring grabs over 21 career postseason games and there’s no doubt that Brady will be looking for 87 once Tampa Bay enters the red zone. Count me in for a Gronk spike at +110.

Sam’s NFL Picks
Packers -5.5
Buccaneers -145
Gronkowski TD +110

RECORD: (93-82, +16.6)

Thumbnail photo via Jan 16, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) looks on prior to a game against the Philadelphia Eagles in a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports Images

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