NFL Divisional Weekend Sharps vs. Squares Report: Underdog Bills and 49ers Drawing Big Money


The field is set for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Action is split over two days, and as usual, so is the betting action. The typical public teams continue to draw a significant percentage of bets, while the sharps have taken a stance on a pair of unsuspecting dogs.

Here’s our rundown of sharp vs. square action for divisional action.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

Spread: 49ers +5.5
Action: 45% of bets, 68% of dollars wagered

It will come as no surprise that the betting public is on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers yet again. The Pack are taking 55% of bets while drawing only 32% of actual dollars wagered. It’s been a common occurrence for the betting market to overestimate the Packers’ chances, with Green Bay going 3-4 against the spread over their past seven games of the regular season.

Last week, the San Francisco 49ers flexed their defensive muscles against the Dallas Cowboys, limiting the league’s best offense to 307 yards. The Niners will have to replicate that performance at Lambeau Field, but their track record to end the season inspires confidence. San Fran limited nine of their past ten opponents to 327 yards or fewer, going 8-2 against the spread over that stretch.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Bills +1.5
Action: 36% of bets, 79% of dollars wagered

The Buffalo Bills are the other underdog drawing sharp action ahead of their matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills shellacked the New England Patriots during wild card weekend but won’t have a raucous home crowd on their side on Sunday. That doesn’t make a difference for sharp bettors, who are driving the price on the Bills down.

Buffalo can point to their Week 5 encounter against the Chiefs, validating the sharp action early this week. The Bills handled Patrick Mahomes and company at Arrowhead, going for 436 yards while limiting the Chiefs to 392. That’s been the Bills’ MO all season, as they’ve outgained their opponents in 15 of 18 games while going 12-3 straight up over that stretch.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Rams +3
Action: 58% of bets, 35% of dollars wagered

It takes a special team to outdraw a Tom Brady-led squad, but that’s what the Los Angeles Rams are doing leading up to their divisional round game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 58% of bets are coming in on the Rams, representing only 35% of the actual dollars wagered.

Turnovers plagued the Rams to end the regular season, giving the ball up nine times over the final four games. LA doesn’t have a great track record covering the spread as visitors this season, going 4-5 and failing to cover in four of their previous six road games. A few factors are working against the Rams that sharp bettors are keying in on.

All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid

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