When it comes to picking your Super Bowl champion, it’s worth remembering that good teams win, but great teams cover the point spread.
So while the Kansas City Chiefs (8-9 ATS) and Los Angeles Rams (8-9 ATS) are both trendy selections to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at SoFi Stadium, recent betting math works against those two squads.
You may want to take a peek at the ATS records before making your Super Bowl prediction.
The last five Super Bowl champions have all been top-five teams at beating the number and making money for bettors throughout those respective seasons. Three of them lead the league in cover rate.
Recent Super Bowl champions:
2020 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-8 ATS – 5th)
2019 – Kansas City Chiefs (13-5-1 ATS – 1st)
2018 – New England Patriots (12-7 ATS – 3rd)
2017 – Philadelphia Eagles (13-6 ATS – 1st)
2016 – New England Patriots (16-3 ATS – 1st)
Best NFL teams (ATS) this season:
Dallas Cowboys 13-4
Green Bay Packers 12-5
Detroit Lions 11-6
Buffalo Bills 10-6-1
The Cowboys are clearly peaking at the right time with five wins (and covers) in six games down the stretch. The only game they lost — SU and ATS — was a 25-22 loss to the Cardinals as 6.5-point favorites in Week 17.
Green Bay started the season 11-2 ATS but failed to cover in three of its last four games.
Arizona, Cincinnati, New England and Tennessee all finished 10-7 ATS, while Tampa Bay and San Francisco were both 9-8. Playoff teams that posted losing records against the spread are Philadelphia (8-8), Pittsburgh (8-9), Kansas City (8-9), Las Vegas (8-9) and Los Angeles (8-9).
I’ve been very adamant for months that the Packers are the team to beat this season. Likely NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers was the best quarterback in football with 37 touchdowns and four interceptions. Once David Bakhtiari, Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith return from injury after the first-round bye, Green Bay will be as close to full strength as it’s been all season long.
The betting value isn’t great on the Packers (+380) to win Super Bowl LVI, but they’re still my pick.