New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is no longer favored to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
After climbing as high as -600 ($600 wins $100) to bring home the hardware in early December, Jones has taken a back seat at most American sportsbooks thanks to a late-season surge from Cincinnati Bengals star wideout Ja’Marr Chase.
Chase snagged 11 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns Sunday in an upset of Kansas City as Cincinnati clinched its first AFC North title since 2015.
DraftKings reopened its Offensive ROY market early Monday morning with Chase as a -225 favorite and Jones on the two-line at +175. It’s an extremely notable favorite flip considering that Jones was being dealt around -400 or -450 heading into the weekend.
Updated Offensive Rookie of the Year odds:
DraftKings: Chase -225 / Jones +175
Caesars: Chase -220 / Jones +180
FanDuel: Chase -220 / Jones +175
PointsBet: Chase -210 / Jones +155
BetMGM: Chase -200 / Jones +170
“There’s definitely an overreaction with those prices,” one professional bettor told NESN. “Jones was great against Jacksonville, but Chase put on a show for the ages and caught two 70-yard touchdowns. Those grabs were all over the highlight reels, which stirs up even more hype for Chase.”
When it comes to booking bets on future markets like Offensive Rookie of the Year, late-season surges carry a ton of weight for the betting public. Even though Chase caught only one pass for three yards in Week 15, he followed that dud up with 391 yards and two touchdowns in Weeks 16 and 17.
And most bettors remember what they’ve seen last.
The books overadjusted the price on Chase because they knew that bettors would’ve whacked anything at plus-money. Think of it as circumventing the recency bias by making it expensive to bet Chase.
“All that stuff is built into the new prices,” the bettor explained. “It’s clear the books don’t want to write any more bets on Chase down the stretch. I would argue there’s value on Jones around +175 because the true odds should be closer to -110 each way given their full-season résumés.”
Those of us with 10-to-1 bets on Mac Jones will be sweating bullets this coming Sunday. Here’s hoping Jones carves up Miami for 300 yards and three touchdowns and Chase lays an egg against Cleveland.
Fingers crossed.
