Our last round of NFL picks went 2-1 two weeks ago and I passed last weekend because making selections during the final week of the regular season is a nightmare with all the uncertainty.
Thank goodness the playoffs are here and everybody cares.
If you’re new around these parts, this is not a place where you’ll find a million betting picks. I isolate the ones I really, really like and roll with those. Nothing more, nothing less. Don’t expect to see any five-team parlays or “locks” on primetime games, either.
Let’s go to work.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, O/U 48.5)
Raiders +6
1H Under 24
I’m doing it again — I’m fading Joe Burrow. Cincinnati remains one of the trendiest teams to bet on due to how well Burrow and his mates played down the stretch. But I love this matchup for Las Vegas. The Raiders rank eighth in the NFL in opponent yards per pass and their pass rush just doesn’t quit. Cincinnati has a high ceiling and low floor and the reality truly is in the middle. This feels like a field goal game either way and I’ll grab all those points against a young quarterback making his playoff debut.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3, O/U 51)
Cowboys -3
Multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks are telling me that San Francisco slowly is becoming the public underdog as we get closer to Sunday. That’s usually a recipe for disaster in the postseason. Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has a banged up thumb and elbow and I expect Dallas’ defense to send the horses after him all game long. Hopefully Mike McCarthy dials up plenty of plays down the field as the Niner defense ranks dead last in the NFL against passes 16 yards and deeper. Yikes.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4, O/U 49.5)
Rams -4
Fading Kliff Kingsbury is one of my new favorite things. He’s the guy at the poker table who gives away all his tricks and ticks within the first hour or so and gets knocked out when things get hot and heavy. The Cardinals totally blew a chance to clinch the NFC West with four losses in their last five games. And two of those losses came against the Detroit Lions and the Seattle Seahawks. Los Angeles is more efficient on both ends of the ball and the Rams defense has a superstar at every level. I like Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey to make life difficult on Kyler Murray.
Sam?s Picks
Raiders +6
LV-CIN 1H U24
Cowboys -3
Rams -4
RECORD: (92-79, +18.9)
