San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Trends, and Picks for NFL Divisional Round on FanDuel Sportsbook

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January 20, 2022

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Game Info

Date: Saturday, January 22

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Venue: Lambeau Field

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Moneyline, Total, and Odds

All NFL Betting Lines, Odds, and Prop Bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Moneyline: 49ers +200 | Packers -245

Spread: 49ers +6 (-112) | Packers -6 (-108)

Total: 47 Over (-110) Under (-110)

Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: 49ers +1200 | Packers +350

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions and Picks

  • 49ers +6
  • Over 47
  • Elijah Mitchell Over 77.5 rushing yards
  • Deebo Samuel Over 34.5 rushing yards

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers News, Analysis, and Picks

The 49ers look to make it four straight postseason victories over the Packers as they head to Lambeau for the NFL Divisional round. These two teams did already meet once this season when the Packers traveled to Santa Clara and edged out the 49ers by a score of 30-28. A lot has certainly changed since then, but will the final result be any different this time around?

The 49ers are the only team left in the playoffs without a superstar quarterback. In this day and age, it’s rare to see a team find success without relying on a demigod at the position. How have they managed to get things done without an Aaron Rodgers under center?

Kyle Shanahan remains one of the best offensive minds in the game. Thanks to a run-first approach that keeps defenses honest, the 49ers have the highest explosive pass rate in the NFL. The offense line ranks in the top-10 in nearly every advanced metric in both pass-blocking and run-blocking. Left tackle Trent Williams has been the best lineman in football this season, but it’s been a communal effort, and the game planning certainly helps. 

While the Packers have undoubtedly been the better team this season and are the deserved favorite at home, we view this as a nightmare matchup. The 49ers have run the ball exceptionally well, which is a problem for a Packers team with a glaring weakness at stopping the run. The Pack rank 27th in both rushing DVOA and rushing EPA per play allowed while ranking dead last (32nd) in rushing success rate allowed and explosive runs allowed.

Sure, you say, but the Packers already beat the 49ers once this season. That’s true, and it could happen again — but that win came by only two points. Running back Elijah Mitchell didn’t play in that matchup, while Deebo Samuel had only two carries. Mitchell has come on strong to end the season and has established himself as a true bell-cow, handling over 20 carries in each of his past six games. Deebo Samuel is a bonafide rushing threat, accumulating 415 ground yards in the previous nine games. He’s a lock to see more than 2 carries this time around. We think there’s significant value in Elijah Mitchell Over 77.5 rushing yards and Deebo Samuel Over 34.5 rushing yards.

A big storyline to follow is the health of key defensive players. Cornerback Jaire Alexander injured his shoulder in Week 4 and hasn’t played since, linebacker Za’Darius Smith hasn’t played since Week 1, and defensive lineman Whitney Mercilus is also banged up. All three have been practicing this week, but their status is still up in the air. Even if they do play, it’s fair to question if Alexander and Smith will be at 100% after such long layoffs. Those are significant players, and their return will make a difference, but we believe the gap between the 49ers’ offense and the Packers’ defense is enough for Shanahan to scheme success.

We think this is too many points for a team winning eight of its past ten games and with a significant mismatch advantage offensively. Give us the 49ers +6.

You’ll notice that we haven’t spent much time on the Packers’ offense. By now, you know the drill. Aaron Rodgers is one of the greats at the position, while Davante Adams is a consistent threat on the outside who will beat the 49ers in coverage. This SF defense has been under-the-radar, ranking top-5 in success rate for most of the season. Stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner were both banged up in the Wild Card round and are considered questionable, although it was a good sign that Bosa practiced on Wednesday. 

The Packers are a well-oiled machine and will score points regardless of whether or not we think the 49ers are underrated defensively. It’s expected to be a freezing night in Lambeau, with a wind chill of 0 degrees and gusts of 10 mph. Unless the wind picks up, we think the weather is artificially deflating the total. The 49ers will be able to move the ball, and the Packers will find success as they always do, thanks to Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and company. Give us Over 47.

All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid

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Thumbnail photo via USA TODAY Sports Images

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