We got nice cash with the underdog Grizzlies as they won outright on the road against the Nuggets on Friday night. On Saturday, the NBA has just three games on the schedule as the NFL takes center stage with the divisional round of its playoffs. However, despite the limited offering, I’ve got a play in mind that’s a bit contrarian compared to the direction the market is moving in at the moment.
Let’s head to Forest City, where the Cavaliers will host the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, Moneyline, Total and Odds
Moneyline: Thunder +610 | Cavaliers -900
Spread: Thunder +12.5 (-114) | Cavaliers -12.5 (-116)
Total: Over 208.5 (-112) | Under 208.5 (-108)
NBA Championship Odds: Thunder +50000 | Cavaliers +6000
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, News, Analysis and Picks
Although the total for this game opened at 209.5, some money’s come in on the under, and I’m struggling to find a reason why. Nothing stands out to me in terms of injuries, and while I’m aware that both clubs profile as an under team, the Cavaliers have scored at least 100 points in ten of their past eleven games. Furthermore, both teams have scored at least 100 points in nine of the previous ten meetings.
If we look at offensive efficiency, Cleveland ranks 11th in the league with 107.8 points per 100 possessions. However, that number’s up to 112.1 over its past three games.
Interestingly, Cleveland’s been able to have better production while making fewer three-point field goals during that span. It’s averaged 9.7 three-pointers in its past three games, which is below its season average of 11.9 per game. Instead, we’re seeing more high percentage shots by the Cavaliers in and around the paint, which has also led to more attempts at the free-throw line.
As for Oklahoma City, it’s allowed at least 118 points in each of its past two games. With the Cavaliers as high as a 12.5 point favorite, we could see the trend continue in terms of points allowed. As a result, if we get around 95 points from the Thunder, the over should still have a chance.
Since I want a bit more security, I’ll buy this total down to 207.5 and play the alternate line that’s slightly juiced to -126.
Pick: ALT Total Over 207.5 (-126)
All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
