Today's NBA Best Bet: Expect A Lower-Scoring Game between the Mavericks and Grizzlies


January 14, 2022

We finally snapped our losing streak on Thursday by cashing an under on the Nets team total against the Thunder. It was a game with plenty of twists and turns, including a five-point move in favor of the Thunder following reports that the Nets would rest some key players in the second leg of a back-to-back. We’ll try to make it two-in-row with another play on a total.

Let’s head to Memphis for a divisional clash between the Grizzlies and the Mavericks.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies, Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Mavericks +108 | Grizzlies -130

Spread: Mavericks +2 (-110) | Grizzlies -2 (-110)

Total: Over 215.5 (-110) | Under 215.5 (-110)

NBA Championship Odds: Mavericks +4600 | Grizzlies +3200

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies, News, Analysis, and Picks

The Dallas Mavericks are tied with the Warriors for the best under mark in the league at 26-13-2. Interestingly, Dallas is playing at roughly the same pace with 98.9 possessions per game compared to 100 possessions in the previous season. However, with the addition of Jason Kidd as the head coach, the Mavericks have improved their defensive efficiency from 22nd (110.3 points per 100 possessions per game) to ninth (104.6 points per 100 possessions). While there’s already plenty on the line with this divisional game, it’s also worth noting that the Grizzlies currently have the longest winning streak in the league at 11 games. And if that’s not enough, this game will also be on national television with ESPN carrying the broadcast. Each team will be fully knowledgeable of what’s at stake, given how tight they’ve played inside the division. The total is a combined 10-5-1 to the under for both teams in divisional contests.

Dallas has benefited from the play of center Kristaps Porzingis in the frontcourt. The former fourth overall pick averages 1.7 blocks this season, which would be his highest output since 2019. With Porzingis patrolling the paint, Dallas also does a tremendous job on the perimeter, limiting opponents to just 32.1 three-point attempts per game. That puts the Mavericks fourth in the league for this category.

Two active trends caught my attention for this matchup:

  • The total is 7-1 to the under in the Mavericks past eight games off a loss by ten or more points.
  • The total is 6-0 to the under in the Grizzlies past six games as a home favorite.

This total’s been on the move since opening as high as 218. While I still like the under at 215.5, I’ll look to risk a half-unit of my bankroll on the play.

Pick: Half-unit on the under 215.5 (-110)

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

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Thumbnail photo via Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

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