Today's NBA Best Bet: Target The Under On This Stephen Curry Prop

On Wednesday, we needed a win and turned to the Grizzlies, who cashed for us as road favorites against the San Antonio Spurs. On Thursday, the NBA only features two games on the card. And since there’s not a lot of variety with the games available, we’ll look to see if we can find some value in the props market.

Let’s head to San Francisco, where the Golden State Warriors will host the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors, Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Timberwolves +205 | Warriors -250

Spread: Timberwolves +5.5 (-106) | Warriors -5.5 (-114)

Total: Over 229 (-112) | Under 229 (-108)

NBA Championship Odds: Timberwolves +16000 | Warriors +450

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors, News, Analysis, and Picks

I was very close to not releasing a play, but after quickly scanning the props market, one thing that jumped out to me was Stephen Curry’s assists prop. Sportsbooks have set his prop at 7.5 with a .10 to .15 cent juice added on the over. However, I think the under is worth looking at in this spot, given some compelling trends we’ve seen with Curry when he has seven or more assists. But before we dive into that trend, we can make a few assessments based on the total that has been bet up as high as 229.5.

Curry will likely be involved in the scoring if bookmakers are projecting a ton of points in the game. As a result, it might be unlikely that he’ll be deferring a lot to his teammates. Another way to think about how high-scoring games can influence his assists prop is by looking at the opposing team. In this case, Minnesota ranks in the bottom half of the league in points allowed as they’re giving up 109.9 points per game, and that average is up to 122 points over the past three games.

Thus, I’d expect Curry to be aggressive against this Minnesota defense.

Finally, I’ll touch on the trend I spotted earlier that involves when Curry comes off a game with at least seven assists. I went through his entire 2021-22 game log, and before Tuesday’s game, Curry’s registered at least seven assists in a game on 16 occasions. If we look at that sample, there’ve been five occasions where Curry matched or exceeded seven assists in his next game. When you combine that with Curry possibly having a decent offensive display against a weaker defense, it’s hard to see him passing the ball a ton on Thursday night. I like the under in this spot for a half-unit.

Pick: Curry assists under 7.5 (0.5 unit)

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.