Today's NBA Best Bet: Target This Team Total In Brooklyn

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January 13, 2022

Despite winning three out of the four quarters, a 17-point deficit in the third cost the Lakers a chance to win our best bet on Wednesday. We’ll try to turn the page as quickly as possible and find a winner with one of five games on the NBA slate. Let’s head to Brooklyn, where the Nets will host the Thunder.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Brooklyn Nets, Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Thunder +184 | Nets -220

Spread: Thunder +5.5 (-110) | Nets -5.5 (-110)

Total: Over 216 (-110) | Under 216 (-110)

NBA Championship Odds: Thunder +50000 | Nets +260

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Brooklyn Nets, News, Analysis, and Picks

The total for this game’s been on the move since opening at 213.5. I went back and looked at Brooklyn’s previous ten, and there was a total of at least 220 points in nine of those games. It’s worth noting that Brooklyn ranks seventh in pace with 103.4 possessions per game. Interestingly, good teams generally don’t play at a fast pace because if they’re good, they don’t need to win with a gimmick. In other words, good teams can play at any tempo, and perhaps they’re even more skilled in knowing how to conserve their energy better.

Brooklyn’s scored at least 116 points in the past three meetings and won two of those games by at least 22 points. Ideally, that’s not a good sign for Oklahoma City, who ranks in the league’s bottom half in defensive efficiency, as it is allowing 106.5 points per 100 possessions per game. Offensively, while the Thunder ranks 29th in efficiency with 98.9 points per 100 possessions, that number’s up to 105.8 over their past three games.

However, I think this game has a chance to be reasonably competitive. The Thunder are in a revenge spot and have covered five of their past six games. Moreover, Oklahoma City has the third-best ATS mark at 26-14. Oklahoma City should also benefit from Kevin Durant being ruled out for the game.

In contrast, the Nets have covered just one spread in their past eight games and will play the second leg of a back-to-back on Thursday and their fourth game in five days. The reality is this is an awful spot for a Brooklyn team that hasn’t won back-to-back games in over two weeks. The point spread’s also been on the move since the Thunder opened as high as a 10.5 point underdog, but that number has dropped as low as 5.5. I’m not interested in either side in this matchup, given the volatility of the line. Instead, I’ll look to take a contrarian approach back play the Nets under their team total of 112.5 points (-126) for a half unit.

Pick: Half-unit on Nets team total under 112.5 (-126)

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

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Thumbnail photo via Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

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