On Tuesday, the Hornets were on the wrong side as they failed to bounce back from a 22-point loss in their previous outing. All we can do now is turn the page, and when you need a win, there are few teams that you count on more than the Grizzlies. Thus, we’ll look to target Memphis as part of our best bet on Wednesday.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs, Moneyline, Total and Odds
Moneyline: Grizzlies -178 | Spurs +150
Spread: Grizzlies -4 (-110) | Spurs +4 (-110)
Total: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)
NBA Championship Odds: Grizzlies +3000 | Spurs +50000
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs, News, Analysis, and Picks
Although things didn’t work out for us on Tuesday in backing a team off a double-digit loss, I have no reason to abandon that strategy at the moment. Memphis is coming off a 13-point loss on the road to the Mavericks, and you’d have to go back to Dec. 23 to find the last time that Memphis lost back-to-back games. The Grizzlies have the third-highest ATS mark in the league at 31-18, and off a loss, they have the fifth-highest cover rate at 62.5%.
Memphis is still undervalued in the league when you consider that they’ve only been a road favorite on four occasions this season, and if you’re wondering, they’re 3-1 ATS in this spot. On Wednesday night, they’ll face a Spurs team with just three wins in their past ten games. San Antonio is an exciting team in that its point differential on the season is essentially even despite being 12 games below .500. While that suggests the Spurs are wildly inconsistent, a closer look reveals that San Antonio doesn’t seem to have adapted to the modern style of basketball in the NBA at the moment.
Two things stand out to me when I analyze this Spurs team:
- They’re not a good rebounding team which means more second-chance baskets for their opponents and easy points in the paint.
- They’re a below-average three-point shooting team.
San Antonio ranks 23rd in rebounding, so it’s no surprise that they’re 28th in points allowed in the paint (50.2 per game). However, if you’re going to give up second-chance opportunities because you struggle on the boards, you need to outscore your opponents with the three-point shot because you’ll have fewer possessions. Unfortunately, the Spurs rank 29th with 11 three-point field goals per game. Conversely, the Grizzlies rank 26th with 11.1 three-pointers per game, but they lead the league with 57.3 rebounds per game.
When you sum it up, this game has the makings of a bad matchup for the Spurs. The head-to-head results support this theory as Memphis is 7-3 ATS in the past ten meetings and 5-1-1 ATS as the visiting team in San Antonio.
This is also an excellent opportunity to fade the Spurs as they’re 0-5 ATS coming off a game they covered. With these trends active for Wednesday night, I’d look to lay the points with the road favorites. This line opened with Memphis as a three-point favorite, and I’m a bit disappointed I missed the best of the number.
As a result, I’ll look to play Memphis on the alternate line of -3.5 at -128 odds.
Pick: Grizzlies -3.5 (-128)
All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.