Today's NHL Betting Guide: Oilers and Kings are Good Value Plays on Thursday


January 20, 2022

Nine games across five time slots are what we have to look forward to with NHL action tonight. One team comes in on the second night of a back-to-back, while five others are on the first night. As usual, that means goaltender usage will be essential as teams assess ideal usage ahead of a busy couple of nights in the Chell.

These are the wagers we’re looking at from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Panthers -154|Oilers +128

Spread: Panthers -1.5 (+144)|Oilers +1.5 (-178)

Total:  7 Over -106|Under -114

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers News, Analysis, and Picks

The Florida Panthers came out of the gates hot after the break, scoring four or more goals in nine straight games. But they were held to just one goal last time out against the Calgary Flames. That could be the start of their correction phase as they head up to take on an Edmonton Oilers squad looking like progression candidates.

The Panthers averaged 6.0 goals per game during their nine-game hot streak, a span in which they went 8-0-1. Florida was scoring on 14.0% of shots, elevating their season-long shooting percentage to 11.2%. In doing so, the Panthers put up a scorching 1.080 PDO over the nine-game stretch, putting them on the cusp of regression. We started to see that last time out, as Florida scored just one goal on 29 shots, which could be a sign of things to come as their production metrics balance with output.

Edmonton is on the opposite end of the spectrum and is due for meaningful progression after an extended drought. The Oilers have been limited to two or fewer goals in nine of their past 13, losing 11 of those contests. Their goaltending has been letting them down simultaneously, with the Oilers accumulating a 0.936 PDO over their 13 game stretch, dropping them below 1.000 on the season. Edmonton’s offense is starting to show improved offensive metrics, attempting 26 or more scoring chances at five-on-five in four of their past five and nine high-danger opportunities in three of five. Edmonton’s offense isn’t as bad as we’ve seen and should start to have some puck luck finding the back of the net.

Sergei Bobrovsky has stopped 88.9% of shots or fewer in three straight road games. That could be a good indicator for the Oilers, who we’re expecting to be better on home ice tonight. At +128 or better, it’s worth backing the Oilers.

The Pick: Oilers +128

Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings Moneyline, Total and Odds

 Moneyline: Avalanche -176|Kings +142

Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+125)|Kings +1.5 (-158)

Total: 6 Over -128|Under +104

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings News, Analysis, and Picks

The Colorado Avalanche drew the short straw for tonight’s schedule and will be competing on the second night of a back-to-back against a rested Los Angeles Kings team. LA has been better than expected this season, and their recent performances suggest that they should have more wins than they’ve accumulated over their recent stretch.

Since returning to action, the Kings have gone 6-4-0, but their metrics have been much better. LA has outplayed their opponents at five-on-five in nine of ten games, posting a cumulative 60.4% expected goals-for rating. Their offensive attack has been unstoppable, with the Kings attempting ten or more high-danger chances in seven of ten games, with a rolling average of 13.5 per game. Los Angeles has been almost as efficient defensively, limiting their opponents to nine or fewer quality chances in six of ten, for an average of 8.4, and getting out-chanced just once over that span.

Back-to-backs have been few and far between for the Avs this season. Tonight’s game will be only their fifth occasion of playing on consecutive nights. Although they are 3-0-1 in this scenario, there is a stark contrast in their advanced metrics. Colorado has been outplayed in two of those four games, with their expected goals-for ratings above 50.0% coming against the lowly Montreal Canadiens and Arizona Coyotes.

It’s also worth noting that this will be the Avs’ seventh game over the past 11 days and third back-to-back over that stretch. Pavel Francouz started last night, meaning that Darcy Kuemper is the projected starter and is operating at less than 100% while resolving an upper-body injury.

The betting market is overestimating the Avs’ chances tonight in LA. A few factors are working against Colorado, while the Kings have been one of the best teams in the league since returning to action. We’re backing the home dogs at +142.

The Picks: Kings +142

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

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Thumbnail photo via John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

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