Today's NHL Betting Guide: Rangers in tough against Sharks, Dog Devils invade the Island

It was a home team sweep on last night’s NHL docket, with all three teams winning in their friendly confines and two of the three covering the puck line. That’s not likely to happen on tonight’s 11-game slate, even though eight of those home teams enter tonight as -205 favorites or higher. That’s not stopping us from finding value on Thursday night.

These are the wagers we’re looking at from FanDuel Sportsbook.

New York Rangers vs. San Jose Sharks Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Rangers -126|Sharks +105

Spread: Rangers -1.5 (+206)|Sharks +1.5 (-260)

Total:  5.5 Over -110|Under -110

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

New York Rangers vs. San Jose Sharks News, Analysis, and Picks

It’s challenging to reconcile the New York Rangers’ success with their advanced metrics without concluding that they are likely headed down a correction path. That regression period may have already started, as the Broadway Blueshirts have dropped two of three amid decreased output. We’re betting that continues against the San Jose Sharks on Thursday night.

The Rangers have kept their heads above water over their past 10, going 5-4-1, improving to 8-6-1 if we go back to December 4. What’s unique about that stretch is the Rangers have been outplayed at five-on-five in every one of those contests. Cumulatively, New York has posted a 42.7% expected goals-for percentage over that stretch, with a mildly inflated PDO of 1.007. Those concerns are validated across all strengths, as the Rangers have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in just five of their contests while building up a 1.015 PDO. New York has been more successful than their metrics imply and should see their analytics balance with outcomes over their coming games.

We’ve seen impressive stuff from the Sharks over their recent stretch. San Jose is on a modest three-game winning streak outplaying their opponents in each game. That is part of a bigger sample in which the Sharks have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% at five-on-five in six of their past nine, a span in which they have only five wins and a 0.993 PDO. San Jose has been better than their record implies and should continue to see more wins in the near future.

The Sharks are undeserving of their home underdog price tag. We’re expecting another above-average performance from them against a Rangers squad that has been one of the worst at five-on-five over the past six weeks. Plus-money on the home side isn’t worth passing up.

The Pick: Sharks +105

New Jersey Devils vs. New York Islanders Moneyline, Total and Odds

 Moneyline: Devils +184|Islanders -225

Spread: Devils +1.5 (-150)|Islanders -1.5 (+122)

Total: 6 Over -102|Under -120

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

New Jersey Devils vs. New York Islanders News, Analysis, and Picks

One home team that we think is overvalued on tonight’s slate is the New York Islanders. The Isles have been out of action since January 1 and have seen a downturn in their metrics over their recent games. That puts them at a disadvantage against a New Jersey Devils team that has been competitive since returning post-holidays.

Since coming back after the break, the Devils have outplayed three of six opponents, posting a cumulative 53.0% expected goals-for rating over that span. New Jersey has played with strong defensive structure over that stretch, limiting their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in all six contests, out-chancing their opponents in every game. They’ve employed a similar standard against scoring chances, holding their opponents to 22 or fewer in four of six and getting out-chanced only once over the six-game sample.

New York has struggled to keep pace with their opponents most of the season, and that’s been even more evident over their past four games. The Islanders have been outplayed in three of four, failing to generate any significant offense. They only attempted more than eight high-danger chances against the Buffalo Sabres when they put up nine. Somehow, they still managed to win three games, despite their metrics working against them.

We’ve seen teams come out flat in their first game back from a COVID-19 hiatus, and that’s what we’re expecting from the Islanders on Thursday night. The Devils have been competitive recently and are in an excellent spot to take advantage of an Islanders team looking to get back up to game speed.

The Picks: Devils +184

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.