What Do NFL Betting Odds Tell Us About Aaron Rodgers-Packers Uncertainty?

The biggest domino of the NFL offseason still has to fall


February 22, 2022

This could end up being a massive week for Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers, and really, the entire NFL.

Rodgers has the football world on pins and needles following a late-night Instagram post that offered plenty of gratitude but very little in terms of answers about his future. The twice-reigning MVP has yet to commit to Green Bay for the 2022 season and isn’t even fully committed to playing again next season.

So, when he speaks, we’re all going to listen, and when he speaks in a hilariously vague manner as he did Monday night, we’re left to parse words and look for clues. The big takeaway for online sleuths Monday night was the image of Packers wideouts Davante Adams and Randall Cobb without Rodgers in his customary spot between his two friends.

However, answers could soon be coming our way. In addition to the social media activity, Rodgers’ best media bud, Pat McAfee, has promised a massive guest for his team’s return to the airwaves Tuesday to kick off the 2022 NFL year. Rodgers did pledge to reveal his decision on McAfee’s radio show, so those dots obviously were connected quite quickly. Not only that, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst is scheduled to meet with the media Wednesday — for what that is worth.

As it stands right now, it does feel like Rodgers is either back with the Pack or retiring. The team’s decision to pry Tom Clements out of retirement and rehire him as quarterbacks coach, a position he used to help mold Rodgers early in his career, was noteworthy. It’s unlikely someone that close to Rodgers would just so happen to be coming out of retirement to coach up Jordan Love.

The betting markets often give us an early indication of where things might be headed. At the very least, uncertainty can prompt sportsbooks to remove betting options from the board. As of Tuesday morning, however, all Packers and Rodgers futures remained up for grabs at DraftKings Sportsbook. And they certainly are written in a way that expects a future Hall of Famer to be under center in Green Bay in 2022.

Packers to win the Super Bowl: +1400 (fourth-best in NFL)
Packers to win NFC: +600 (tied for second-best)
Rodgers to win MVP: +800 (third-best)

There is, however, just one division in the entire league currently not on the board at DK, and that’s the NFC North. The Packers aren’t the only team in that division with uncertainty, though, as the Minnesota Vikings seemingly have a decision to make on Kirk Cousins, too.

One other betting-related thing to note is how DraftKings has positioned the Broncos. Denver has been tied to Rodgers dating back to last year’s draft, and the team hasn’t exactly been discreet about positioning itself to be an attractive landing spot for Rodgers. The Broncos are currently 22-1 to win Super Bowl LVII at DraftKings, tied for the ninth-shortest odds in the NFL. The Broncos, who went 7-10 last season, currently have better odds than the Steelers, Raiders, Eagles, Cardinals and Patriots, all 2021 playoff teams.

Denver is also 11-1 to win the AFC with better odds than the Titans (the reigning top seed), the Chargers, Colts and Browns, more teams that either finished higher in the conference or were widely considered better than the Broncos last season.

Of course, we can’t read too much into the Broncos’ positioning, either. Even if they’re more of a 40- or 50-1 long shot right this moment, sportsbooks can’t afford to hang a number that high when there’s at least an outside chance Denver has Rodgers in 2022. The second he joins that team they take the Packers’ place on the shortlist of teams favored to win a Super Bowl.

For now, Rodgers’ future remains, in his words, a “beautiful mystery.” Here’s hoping we get some sort of resolution sooner than later.

Thumbnail photo via Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports Images

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