In NASCAR, like every sport, fans buy tickets and turn on the TV to watch the superstars. But from a betting standpoint, getting too caught up in name recognition can be a fool’s errand.
It’s especially risky in this year’s Daytona 500, where there’s no historical reference for how the new racing package will perform in a live restrictor-plate race with a full field. But beware of relying on star power in a race that’s produced winners such as Derrike Cope, Trevor Bayne and Michael McDowell.
Here are three championship-caliber drivers you’ll probably want to avoid Sunday, with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports +1500
It’s not that Byron can’t win this thing. He most certainly might, and even claimed the first win of his NASCAR Cup Series career at the 2020 summer Daytona race. But aside from that win and strong Chevrolet equipment, there’s very little to justify Byron getting the sixth-best odds to win. In his eight career starts at Daytona, he’s wrecked out as many times as he’s finished, according to DriverAverages.com, and has just two top-10 finishes despite an average starting position of 9.8. Simply put, few drivers have done less with more at Daytona International Speedway.
Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing +1700
The Harley J. Earl Trophy is about the only bauble Busch doesn’t have on his mantel during his storied career. With only one win at DIS — way back in the 2008 summer race — there’s little to suggest Busch is trending upward. He took DNFs in four of his last six races at Daytona, although he did capture a second-place finish in 2019. Regardless, that’s too low a number to entice a wager in the unlikely event Busch takes the checkered flag.
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports +1000
Bettors will always pay a tax for the sport’s most popular driver. Could Elliott win at Daytona? Certainly; anyone can. Has he ever? Nope, not even with three poles to his name. Despite last year’s second-place result, it seems a tad aggressive for him to own the second-best odds to win, behind three-time champion Denny Hamlin. It points to Elliott’s popularity that Vegas needs to protect itself, lest Elliott win and the books need to pay off a metric ton of slips for longer odds.
