Detroit Red Wings vs. New York Rangers Betting Guide: Upset Alert For This Original Six Matchup at MSG

Detroit Red Wings vs. New York Rangers Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Red Wings +168 | Rangers -205

Spread: Red Wings +1.5 (-152) | Rangers -1.5 (+124)

Total: 6 Over -102 | Under -120

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Detroit Red Wings vs. New York Rangers News, Analysis, and Picks

Hockey fans are getting treated to an Original Six matchup at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night as the New York Rangers host the Detroit Red Wings. This season, the Rangers have been impressed, currently sitting third in the Metropolitan Division; however, that success is contradicted in their metrics. That could haunt them against an upstart Red Wings team that effectively limits their opponents scoring chances.

Thanks to their structured defensive system, the Wings have been more competitive this season than initially projected. Detroit has limited opponents to four or fewer high-danger chances in three of their past five and 11 or fewer scoring chances in two of three. That structure is complemented by an opportunistic offense that has recorded four or more goals in three straight games. Detroit’s undoing has been their goaltending, posting below-average save percentages in two of their past three. We’re expecting improvement in their team save percentage as it works back up towards average.

New York gets outplayed at five-on-five nearly every time they step onto the ice. Over the past 26 games, the Rangers have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0 percent just twice. That’s created a substantial disconnect between actual and expected metrics. The Rangers have posted the 29th-ranked expected goals-for rating at five-on-five, with an actual rating putting them 15th in the league. That difference, along with their bloated PDO, suggests that the Rangers are regression candidates and should see more losses as their metrics balance with outcomes.

The Red Wings are a young team and with that comes inconsistencies. However, we’ve seen solid defensive metrics over their recent sample and their goaltending metrics should start to reflect that. At +168, we’re backing the Red Wings against a Rangers squad that could be entering a correction phase.

The Picks: Red Wings +168

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.