Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green: UFC Fight Night 202 Betting Preview


February 26

The main event features a 160 lbs catchweight fight due to a last-minute replacement. Bobby Green steps in to save the main event, fighting two weeks after defeating Nasrat Haqparast on February 12. Islam Makhachev will stand across the cage from Green, having only lost once in his 22 career fights.

LW – #4 Islam Makhachev (21-1-0) vs. LW – Bobby Green (29-12-1) 

Date: Saturday, February 26, 2022

Time: 4:00 PM ET

Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada

Broadcast Coverage: ESPN+

Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green Moneyline and Odds

Odds to Win: Makhachev (-900) / Green (+610)

How Will Fight End: KO/TKO (+280), Submission (-135), Points (+250)

Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+260) No (-400)

All betting odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook

Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green News, Analysis, and Picks

Bobby Green is riding a two-fight win streak beating the aforementioned Haqparast and knocking out Al Iaquinta in November. Green has primarily relied on his boxing in the UFC. Still, he does have a Junior College wrestling background. However, Islam Makhachev comes from a place where wrestling is basically a way of life. Makhachev is on a nine-fight win streak and hasn’t lost since being knocked out in 2015 by Adriano Martins.

The two fighters are listed as five foot ten inches tall, but Green will have a half-inch reach advantage. Green keeps his hands low, which masks his strikes and allows for a quick transition into his takedown defense. It’s no secret that Makhachev will relentlessly shoot for the takedown in this fight, and he has the stamina to keep that up for five rounds. With Green fighting takedowns this whole fight, his arms will become heavy, but he’s already used to keeping his hands low.

Green tends to showboat with his striking, which usually plays against him with the judges. Makhachev is an elite wrestler and will probably be able to get this fight to the ground. He has excellent ground control but has been guilty of some lay and pray in the past. The key to this fight for Green will be to keep his distance, work his, and set up his combinations. Meanwhile, Makhachev will be looking to close the distance and lock Green up in a clinch, single-leg, or double-leg takedown. Green has increased his striking output over his last few fights, and that will be necessary for this fight. He’ll be depending on the perception that he’s landing more damage, especially since he’ll be fighting for control the entire fight.

Unfortunately for Green, more has to go right for him to win this fight than it does for Makhachev. Green has to fight a perfect fight to win, and it’s a fight he’s had almost no specific preparation for. Makhachev only needs to get a hold of Green, and this fight is ostensibly over.

Makhachev is such a vast favorite it’s not worth betting him straight up, especially with how dangerous Green is as an opponent.

A bet on Makhachev winning by submission or points has better value.

The Bets: Makhachev by submission (-115) or Makhachev by points (+340)

All UFC predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid

Thumbnail photo via Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

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