St. Louis Blues vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Guide: Overtime in the making?

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February 19

St. Louis Blues vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Blues +168 | Maple Leafs -205

Spread: Blues +1.5 (-148) | Maple Leafs +120

Total: 6.5 Over -102 | Under -120

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St. Louis Blues vs. Toronto Maple Leafs News, Analysis, and Picks

This week’s rendition of Hockey Night in Canada features an inter-conference matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and St. Louis Blues. The Blues are coming off a humbling loss at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens, their third loss over their past five. Toronto has been more successful over their recent sample, going 6-2-0 over their past eight, but they’ve struck an unsustainable balance in their metrics, suggesting they are due for regression.

The Leafs’ offense is running hot over their eight-game sample, scoring four or more goals in six of their contests and averaging 4.8 goals per game. However, that success has come amid a downturn in their production metrics. Toronto has put up eight or fewer high-danger and 25 or fewer scoring chances in five of their past eight. The more concerning trend is that the Leafs have been outplayed at five-on-five in five of eight but continue to win games by a substantial margin. That disconnect implies that the Leafs are spiraling towards a correction phase, also reflected in their 1.044 PDO over that stretch.

St. Louis is on the opposite end of the progression/regression spectrum. The Blues have put forth elite game scores over their recent stretch but haven’t translated that to more wins. The Blues have outplayed their opponents in four straight games, posting a cumulative 62.0% expected goals-for rating over that span. Those efforts haven’t resulted in more wins for the Blues, as they have just two victories despite the improved metrics. The one concerning part of the Blues metrics is that they continue to skate around with the league’s highest PDO, meaning we could see similar outcomes as their metrics balance with outcomes.

The Blues have put together impressive efforts over their recent sample but haven’t translated that to more wins. Conversely, the Leafs have outperformed their metrics over the recent stretch and risk following a similar pattern to the Blues. Inevitably, the Leafs’ offense is going to hit a wall, and we’re anticipating some fallback in their scoring against a Blues team that has limited opponents to eight or fewer quality chances in four straight. That should lead to a tight-checking game, and we’re betting this one gets sorted out in overtime or a shootout.

The Picks: 60-Minute Tie +360

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

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