Super Bowl Betting Trends: Need-To-Know Numbers Before Placing Wagers
Take a look before locking in your bets
According to the TV ratings, more than 96 million people watched last year’s Super Bowl. Now granted, it was a highly compelling game in which Tom Brady was back on the NFL’s biggest stage with a new team. Still, the numbers were astounding, and while this year’s game might match those numbers, you can rest assured that the game will once again reign supreme.
Super Bowl Sunday is sports’ biggest day, regardless of which teams are competing for the Lombardi Trophy, and naturally, that makes it the sports betting world’s biggest day as well.
This year?s matchup is an unusual one, and it?s a good bet that very few people saw it coming, as the Bengals and Rams emerged from their conference playoffs as No. 4 seeds. This will be the first Super Bowl not to include a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed. The game also features two quarterbacks who will be playing in their first Super Bowl. While this in itself isn?t a rarity, as it last happened two years ago in the 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl, the fact that neither Joe Burrow of the Bengals nor Matthew Stafford of the Rams had won a playoff game before this season adds to the intrigue. On top of that, for the second year in a row, one of the participants is playing on its home field. It figures to be an exciting game with endless betting opportunities. When I wrote this, the Rams were sitting as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 48.5.
While the Super Bowl is only one game, the number of betting options available is beyond comprehension and range from the simple point spread and total to the most exotic of prop options. You can even bet other sports happenings on Sunday against the stats or results of the football game.
If you?ve never taken the time to digest all of the betting opportunities available, be sure to do so, because at the very least, you will be amazed by the creativity of the oddsmakers. Trust me, I used to be one, and I contributed my fair share of market ideas.
This year?s Super Bowl will be the 56th in the history of the National Football League. Of course, with a sample size of 55 games, you?ll want to consider the past results as you contemplate how this year?s matchup might play out. They say those who don?t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Well, you could also say that bettors who learn history figure to be better off!
I?ll provide a number of recent trends and patterns that have emerged from the Super Bowl over the years. Perhaps bits from this article will prove to be the ultimate decider of your final plays, perhaps not. Regardless, the information you?ll pick up here will make you more knowledgeable, whether or not you choose to share it at a Super Bowl party.
SUPER BOWL STATS
I always like to remind people that over the two-week break, both teams get to know the other?s tendencies inside and out as their excellent coaching staffs will pour over game film and prepare a game plan so thoroughly that nothing will surprise them. Of course, extensive planning didn?t seem to help the Chiefs and quarterback Patrick Mahomes last February, when he was besieged by the Tampa Bay defense for 60 minutes. The teams that get to this point earn the spot, and since the NFC?s run of dominance ended in the late ?90s, I can think of only two games in which there was anything close to a ?physical mismatch? in the Super Bowl. One was Seattle?s blowout of Denver in 2014, and the other was last year in the Buccaneers? win I just described. Of course, that could have just as easily been a mindset issue, or even the home-field advantage Tampa Bay enjoyed, but that?s debatable. What I?m getting at is that the game most often comes down to little more than preparation and execution.
This execution can be measured by statistics. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers and time of possession are four key statistical categories that I have found to have a great impact on who has won Super Bowls. The following trends demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 41-14 SU and 38-14-3 ATS (73.1%). The Bucs outrushed the Chiefs 145-107 last year.
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 43-12 SU and 37-15-3 ATS (71.2%). The Chiefs? previously dynamic attack produced just 4.96 yards per pass attempt last year in their 31-9 loss.
The team that has more turnovers has won just six times SU and eight times ATS (8-36-8, 18.2%). Last year, the Chiefs turned it over twice, while the Bucs were flawless in this area.
Teams that win the time of possession battle are 40-15 SU and 39-13-3 ATS (75%) in Super Bowl history, and the Bucs were the latest to win on that edge, holding the ball for almost 31 1/2 minutes last year.
Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 40-5 SU and 36-8-1 ATS (81.8%). Amazingly, three of those outright losses were in the last seven games.
Teams that win all four categories are 26-0 SU and 24-1-1 ATS (96%). The only ATS loss occurred in Philadelphia?s ATS win versus the Patriots to end the 2004 season.
SCORING TRENDS
The average winning score is 30.1 points per game, with the average losing score being 16.0, an average winning margin of 14.1. However, interestingly, 16 of the last 18 games have been decided by 14 points or fewer, a sign of a much more competitive era in the NFL. One of those two blowouts was last season.
The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark. The Patriots did it again in 2019 with the lowest winning point total ever — 13 points.
Since the epic 35-31 duel between Pittsburgh and Dallas in Super Bowl XIII in the 1978 season, there have been 26 teams to hit the 30-point mark in this game, their record: 24-2 SU and 23-3 ATS. Only New England, a 32-29 winner over Carolina in ?04, San Francisco in 2013 and New England in ?18 failed to cover their point spreads.
Twenty-two Super Bowl teams have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record: 1-21 SU and ATS (4.5%). This is another trend illustrating just how improbable the Patriots? 2019 win was.
Illustrating how competitive recent games have been, of the 16 games to be decided by less than a touchdown, seven of them have come in the last 14 years.
ATS AND MONEYLINE TRENDS
Favorites in the Super Bowl are 34-20 SU but own an ATS mark of 25-26-3 (49%), with the 1982 game having been a pick-?em point spread. However, over the past 20 years, underdogs own a 14-6 ATS (70%) edge, including 10-4 ATS in the last 14. Tampa Bay won outright as a 3-point dog last year. As of press time, the Rams were 4.5-point favorites.
Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. Still, there hasn?t been a favorite of that magnitude since the Patriots in 2008.
The straight-up winner is 46-6-3 ATS (88.5%) in the Super Bowl, and the dog has never covered a point spread without winning on a Super Bowl line of less than 6 points. This figure equals the highest of the four playoff rounds, with wild-card winners also on an 88.5% ATS run. Champions typically leave little doubt.
Remarkably, the NFC broke a 27-27 outright split in Super Bowl history last year and extended its ATS edge to 28-24-3 (53.8%) all time. However, AFC teams hold a 5-3 SU and ATS edge in last eight.
The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 2-15-2 ATS (11.8%) in the last 25 Super Bowls. Note, in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019, equal seeds matched up. The 2022 matchup pits two No. 4 seeds.
The team with the better record going into the Super Bowl is 29-19 SU all time but has lost 11 of the last 12, including the Chiefs (14-2) versus the Buccaneers (11-5) last year. The Rams (12-5) had a better record than the Bengals (10-7) in the regular season.
Good luck on your Super Bowl LVI wagering and enjoy all of the lead-up and the festivities of the big game!
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